Grant amount：\4810000 （ Direct Cost: \3700000 、 Indirect Cost：\1110000 ）

Perform the implementation of the workshop by communication type legislation, residents and government and experts, were carried out rule-making through workshops. For example, for the legislation on pre-measures against wooden dense area, was studied the effect of the vacant lot of the vacant house, the effect of the refractory of the roadside building, a set of roadside building back, the effect of the fire trees. In addition, by using a simulator, it presented for the manifestation of the reduction of risk, were examined and deliberative. In addition, due to fire trees, it was also investigated the safety of the shelter.

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Grant amount：\4420000 （ Direct Cost: \3400000 、 Indirect Cost：\1020000 ）

A Web camera and GPS were carried in the ambulance of the Matsuyama south fire department, and the real driving data of emergency vehicles was extracted on it. Next, by developing the system which reproduces those data on country spatial data, and distinguishing distribution and stop time of speed by distribution of a color, and the size of a circle, the driving prevention part was pinpointed from a fall and stop time of speed, and the prevention situation was checked from video. Furthermore, the system which extracts the running speed of a crossing and a link automatically was developed, and the link and crossing used as a bottleneck were clarified. And it was able to be shown quantitatively that the influence which the blue of a signal and red have on a driving speed is great, and the introductory effect of FAST (Emergency Vehicle Preemption Systems) was able to be shown quantitativelyand visually.

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Grant amount：\18200000 （ Direct Cost: \14000000 、 Indirect Cost：\4200000 ）

In the 3rd emergency activity, in order to aim at improvement in the rate of lifesaving, cooperation strengthening of an ambulance and an emergency hospital is indispensable, and the recession way only for an ambulance needs introduction of a doctor car system, and to be established. Furthermore, the digital wireless transfer system of emergency care information needs to be developed. Usually, an examination system was developedto evaluate the introductory possibility of a doctor car system and a doctor heli system. Moreover, the system which examines the optimal position of the recession way only for an ambulance on a highway was developed.

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Grant amount：\19760000 （ Direct Cost: \15200000 、 Indirect Cost：\4560000 ）

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Grant amount：\3980000 （ Direct Cost: \3500000 、 Indirect Cost：\480000 ）

1) Proposal of Framework on Providing Petri Net Technology of Scenario Simulation for Reorganization of Disaster Plans
To reorganize disaster plans with municipal merger, we propose and develop supporting system for scenario simulation based on Petri net. For providing this system technology, we present a framework which consists both of data-base on Petri net and request-response system for users and demonstrate to satisfy following requisites as supporting system:
(1) Petri net scenario simulator could deal with newly faced situations on disaster planning and propose alternative scenario for support to reorganization of disaster plans.
(2) Staffs of local government and residents could easily acquire this system technology and use it by themselves.
2) Development on Practical Systems for Petri Net Scenario Simulation of Disaster Plans We have developed basic subnets necessary to construct scenario simulation net for reorganization of disaster plans. These subnets are accumulated in data-base mentioned above and reused to specify scenario simulation net as corresponding to user's situations. For these practical purposes, we introduce Excel sheet to rewrite Petri net developed for simulation of disaster plans as Sdata Format and systematize net construction process to fit for user's situations using high compiling functions of Excel sheet.
Municipal merger bring about expansion of obligated cover area. In order to respond to this newly situation we develop a practical system for construction of Petri net by using GPS data and demonstrate to compose automatically net of movements of person or emergency cars by acquiring GPS data on real movements in expanded cover area.
3) Application Studies on Supporting Reorganization of Disaster Plans hi Merger Municipalities
Applying practical systems mentioned in 2), we construct simulation nets of scenario on reorganization of command system for dispatching emergency vehicles in expanded cover area of Hakusan City. We demonstrate strategic dispatch scenario simulation that take account of time lag of information at earthquake and discus dissolve dilemma to immediate response at ordinary time through providing supporting system. We also construct net of evacuation plan in Kumakougen City by gathering GPS data at resident's refuge drill and demonstrate practical form of using proposed system to reorganize disaster plans in merger municipalities.

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Grant amount：\3500000 （ Direct Cost: \3500000 ）

The system which research representatives developed is in the ease of an understanding of the method of describing a network, and the driving method. One more point is in the execution nature of the vision type simulation on background pictures, such as a map and an aerial photograph of the region. A representative thinks that the blame and the re-proposal to a plan by experiential examination are verifiable, and while urging an understanding to residents by proposing to residents the refuge plan scenario constituted using such a system.
It can be said that the visibility of the understanding ease and output of a describing method and the method of driving a simulator is the basic requirements for the citizens' participation in municipal affairs to a refuge plan. The refuge plan was taken a step forward from presentation of a simulator, and this research examined participation nature which lets direct reflection of inclusion residents' refuge action pass dynamically with a Petri-net in residents' refuge action. Specifically, the network automatic building method by GPS measurement data was proposed. Construction of the system which raises the participation nature to a plan was completed by equipping residents with cellular phone GPS, carrying out a fire drill to the proposal of the refuge network by the conventional specialist, measuring those refuge actions, and including in a refuge Petri-net directly. One more point tried development of the scenario simulator for supporting the emergency and refuge plan in the mountainous area. The characteristic of a Petri-net visual and explicit while the setting method of a Petri-net dynamic prevention scenario is shown, when first assuming disaster prevention plans, such as prevention (restrictions and cutting), and restoration and a prior plan, was able to be shown. Next, methodology which connection a macroscopic and micro area in a Petri-net, such as an emergency plan and a refuge plan, was able to be shown, and the setting method of arrangement Place timer by practical use of a background picture and the 3-dimensional pocket GPS measurement data was able to be concretely shown as the construction method of broader-based emergency and a refuge plan. At the end, although it was an easy example, the interlocking simulation example by the combination network was able to be shown. As mentioned above, the addition of the prevention network of a national highway No. 33 line and the mutual-aid refuge network based on the refuge preparation information in a colony and the plan scenario to residents were shown dynamically, and it became that reflection to emergency and a refuge planned network was possible, accepting a comment and blame.

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Grant amount：\3800000 （ Direct Cost: \3800000 ）

(1) Dynamical check and rebuilt of fire fighting system at earthquake : Fire fighting system must be reliable even in confusion brought by hazards inherent in a big earthquake. Hazards are classified into two types, restrictive or cutting-off. If the former break out, some of activities are delayed for a certain period and if the latter occur, some of activities become impossible to be performed until recovery works have been finished. We develop macro Petri net simulator of fire fighting system at quake using those hazard concepts and their sub-nets. In urban area, emergency traffic is restricted heavily by a lot of civil cars. This problem is considered in macro net mentioned above as one of restrictive hazards. To set up parameter of sub-net, we also construct micro Perti net simulator for running of fire engines under obstruction of traffic jam. We propose a strategic direction system based on information gathering of hazards and forecast of fires spreading in urban area.
(2) Dynamical check and rebuilt of evacuation planning scenario at earthquake : Evacuation plan is a scenario which must be checked from various view points. We try to support to examine and deploy the first scenario into more safety one using Petri net methodology on background image of planned area. Firstly, we develop Petri net simulator for evacuation in urban densely built-up area of wooden houses. Hazard caused from houses collapsed is restrictive to evacuation action and its effective point is also fixed. But hazard caused from fire is cutting-off to evacuation and its effective point is expanded according to fire spreading. We construct sub-net to describe this scenario linking with fire spreading simulator, and propose scenario setting of alternative site and planning of evacuation drill for earthquake fire risk. Secondly, we develop Petri net simulator of evacuation in the intermediate and mountainous area. Here, area is not flat like urban area. So we introduce the probe information technology to gather geographical data and develop more scenario-fitting procedure to build-up refuge rout Petri-net on a background picture.

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Grant amount：\12400000 （ Direct Cost: \12400000 ）

In this study, we developed the traffic model who expressed a route choice of a driver with a multi-agent simulation system. We adapted ourselves in the model that we developed the model that evaluated reliability for running time of a car and developed for a virtual model network and a real road network for a road network when a big earthquake occurred, we developed the system which predicted outbreak of a simultaneous frequent occurrence fire and the situation of spread of a fire. In addition, we evaluated access characteristics of an emergency vehicle at the time of an earthquake disaster, and having considered the allocation of cars of an urgent vehicle (a firefighting pump car, an ambulance) of each fire department place by reliability analysis of a road network.
We developed the system which predicted the area where an access characteristic of an urgent vehicle for a road network of normal time (in normal) was low by using the reliability analysis system. And we predicted how a road network was damaged at the time of an earthquake disaster and developed the model in order to built a road network. But, about the prediction model of a refuge traffic action, we built a system with a multi-agent of adaptation model. We developed the model that predicted how it occurred and how spread with time where a simultaneous frequent occurrence fire at the time of an earthquake occurred.
We get possible to calculate the area where a firefighting vehicle must arrive at early by utilizing an above system. We developed a traffic micro-simulation system with Petri-net simulator to run a general vehicle and a first aid vehicle at the time of an earthquake disaster. We analyzed the most suitable course instruction that utilized ITS technology and an effect of the most suitable signal control for normal time and after big earthquake outbreak.

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Grant amount：\48100000 （ Direct Cost: \37000000 、 Indirect Cost：\11100000 ）

This research developed dynamic traffic action investigation / analysis system of day-to-day. ID of the web cellular phone was registered through web service, and it is possible to perform data collection of the action locus of the continuous person of day-to-day in semiautomatic by downloading application. Subjects participate in investigation after agreeing on a privacy protection policy. They can edit and browse their action history from PC and portable Web site at any time. It can also regard as user service which extended the blog function. The evaluation to user's probe person system is that a person of half degree wants to participate without fee, when thinking about the low degree of the answer rate on the person trip in recent years, it is particularly worth noting that the investigation for several months doesn't become pain.
The probe person system provides some modularized services and the user service by measurement equipment. For example, 1)The travel feedback service that considers a movement history, 2)Town walk point service, 3)Disaster prevention risk diagnosis, 4)Probe traffic forecast service etc. The offer of the effective data from a subject is attained by service to such a user.
Moreover, real time analysis is attained because obtained data generates indexes in semiautomatic. After arranging the method of data processing, it developed action data search engine based on a data model simultaneously, and it can be called big result to have built the system which can search useful information for subjects and investigators from a huge data group.

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Grant amount：\3900000 （ Direct Cost: \3900000 ）

1.Results of Fundamental Study
(1)Net Construction on Its Background Image and Reinforcement of Colored Representation : By equipping submenu to insert background image, Petri Net model can be constructed on its real planning space image and can be used as basis for public involvement style planning.Also, pictorial representation are expanded by diversifying shape and size of places and colored.
(2)Constraction of Petri Net Data Base : By rebuilding Petri nets on their real planning space images and commenting keywords in their Sdata files, develqed Petri nets are stored as data base for user of Petri Net Simulator.This data base is grown by both commenting from original developer and from user who refer to build their own net for their own planning.
2.Results of Application Studies
(1)Bus Priority Alternative Simulation : By using net construction on its background image, setting "bus advanece area"in real bus departure road is represented as traffic Petri net and by its visual simulation, departure buses are shown to advance to the forefront of setting road area at eveiy signal cycle.Traffic Petri net is also built to describe alternative operation systems for bus priority lane and better one is presented by their comparative simulation.
(2)Simulation of Disaster Prevention Planning : Macro Petri net is constructed for fire prevention system during ordinal case and expanded for one during earthquake by adding hazard nets and comparative simulation are demonstrated.Also, evacuation in building at fire breakout is described by Petri net and influence of deviation from scenario is demonstrated by their simulation.
(3)Simulation of Regional Climate Image : By using diversity of shape and size of places and colored, Petri net representation is developed to simulate four seasons image of regional climate created by a bridge and surrounding mountains.

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Grant type：Competitive

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Grant type：Competitive

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Grant amount：\11100000 （ Direct Cost: \11100000 ）

In this study, we developed the system which predicted outbreak of a simultaneous frequent occurrence fire and the situation of spread of a fire. In addition, we evaluated access characteristics of an emergency vehicle at the time of an earthquake disaster, and having considered the allocation of cars of an urgent vehicle(a fire fighting pump car, an ambulance) of each fire department place by reliability analysis of a road network.
We developed the system which predicted the area where an access characteristic of an urgent vehicle for a road network of normal time(in normal) was low by using the reliability analysis system. And we predicted how a road network was damaged at the time of an earthquake disaster and developed the model in order to built a road network. But, about the prediction model of a refuge traffic action, we built a system with a multi-agent of adaptation model. We developed the model that predicted how it occurred and how spread with time where a simultaneous frequent occurrence fire at the time of an earthquake occurred.
We get possible to calculate the area where a fire fighting vehicle must arrive at early by utilizing an above system. We developed a traffic micro-simulation system with Petri-net simulator to run a general vehicle and a first aid vehicle at the time of an earthquake disaster.

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Grant amount：\2600000 （ Direct Cost: \2600000 ）

In this research we studied travel behavior of rural residents living in a mountain area, particularly the city visit behavior of their discretionary trips. A simple conceptual model is proposed. A simulation study shows that the time of city visits on holidays depend. on demographic characteristics rather than the distance between a city and a village, and on both demographic characteristics and the distance on working days. Actual investigation is executed by two travel diary surveys, one for 120 residents living in Mikawa, Yanadani and Omogo villages investigated in 2000 with this grant-in-aid for scientific research, the other for 120 residents living in Kuma town investigated in 1999 with another grant-in-aid. Both are seven consecutive days travel diary surveys in a mountain area in Shikoku Island, Japan. It is found that 94% of households visit the city Matsuyama, consuming more than two hours drive in the round trip, at least once a week to obtain better goods or services, and their average number of trips is close to that of urban residents.

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Grant amount：\3100000 （ Direct Cost: \3100000 ）

This study focused on the actual driver's route choice behaviour in road networks. Previous studies on route choice behaviour in transport networks were reviewed both theoretical side and observation side. It was found that experimental data in actual networks were very few and route choice models were not sufficiently verified in actual networks. Thus, route choice experiment was made in the actual road network in Matsuyama. Pre-trip route choice and actual route choice including en-route switching were observed through questionnaire survey and onboard survey. Analysis of route choice data of drivers were summarized as follows. Pre-trip route choice behaviour of a driver is assumed to separated into two phases ; path set generation process and choice process. In the first phase, we have proposed an algorithm of extracting a path set between a pair of origin and destination. The screening method using the k-th shortest path algorithm was combined with the EBA(Elimination by Aspects) method. A feasible path set can be extracted from an actual road network. The validity of the proposed algorithm was verified though the comparative study with the Dial's efficient path algorithm. The route choice phase from a feasible set can be described using multiple logit model. We incorporated some variables explaining the complexity of a network. They are the structure of an intersection and the difference of road function along the route. It was found those variables should be involved into route choice model as well as time and cost variables of travel.

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Grant amount：\1600000 （ Direct Cost: \1600000 ）

(1) 車両火災データによる課題の体系化:まず、車両火災統計から、総件数は年々増加傾向にあり、阪神淡路大地震でも多数の炎上残骸があり、延焼拡大要素の1つといえる。車両衝突による出火は年間でほぼ550件で、衝突の火花な主原因である。新聞記事より、事故や渋滞等の理由での停止乗用車への追突が出火事故に繋がっており、地震力を考慮した追突事故シュミレーションが車両出火リスク評価の出発点となる。次に、車両火災実験報告より、追突事故から炎上へのミクロプロセスと、マクロな市街地火災リスクの評価が必要性とした。
(2) ペトリネットによる車両衝突火災シュミレーションの開発:大規模な直下地震時には、衝撃力による運転ミスが発生する。そのモデルをドライバーのCED変換の各部位でのミスと反応遅れで表現するとし、既開発のミクロ交通流のペトリネットシュミレーションの検討と、外的・内的要因による認知・評価・指令ミスの発生ネットと、ミス認知による復帰反応系のネットの作成を行い、それらを結合化させた事故リスク内包型に拡張した。そして、種々の条件の下での追突事故とその速度の計測を行った。次に、衝突車両からの出火プロセスを、衝突時速度、車種分類、車両間距離を入力するペトリネットで記述し、炎上トランジションの発火回数による出火リスクの推定システムを開発し、各パラメータの同定法を検討した。
(3) 路上車両を考慮した地震時火災リスクの評価シュミレーション:既開発の市街地火災シュミレーションシステムを、(1)の成果を踏まえ、建物→車両、車両→車両、車両→建物の延焼アルゴリズムを加えものに改良・拡張した。そして、路上車両の配置パターンを想定したシュミレーションを実施し、渋滞中の車両が4列均等に並ぶ配置では、沿道建物火災から近接車両列へ、さらに反対車線の車列へと延焼拡大し、ついには反対沿道建物まで延焼する。しかし、中央を空けて、車両がそれぞれ沿道側に停車する配置では、同じ条件でも反対車線車両への延焼は起きないという結果となった。このことは、道路中央帯の空間確保は、車両火災リスクを考慮すると重要な課題となる。さらに、緊急車両の走行路確保の1つの具体策という意味でも検討に値するとした。

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Grant amount：\2200000 （ Direct Cost: \2200000 ）

本研究は、(1)火災延焼シミュレーション・システムの入力系システムの整備・開発、(2)オープンスペース・緑地等の延焼阻害要因を組み入れたシミュレーション・システムの開発、(3)広域市街地を対象とした地震火災危険分析システムの開発、(4)適用事例による既開発システムの操作性の評価、の4ステップに大別できる。
(1)〜(3)については、平成9年度の研究実績で報告済みである。本年度は、都市の耐火構造に着目し、金沢市と同様に、松山市の中心市街地を対象地域として、都市構造データを採取し、都市のハード的な防災対策であるブロック化計画と、初期消火(住民による出火抑制と消防力の整備による出火抑制)の組み合わせによる都市の耐火性向上について、評価システムを構成し定量的な分析を行った。その結果、両対象市街地において、初期消火とブロック化を組み合わせることにより大幅な延焼危険性の低減効果を定量的に明示することができた。また、松山市の適用事例では、道路ネットワークをオーバーレイすることにより、オープンスペースとしての道路の防災効果についても併せて評価可能であることを示唆することができた。
今回、金沢市と松山市の広域な市街地のデータを採取した。そこで、両市街地を都市構造要因として取り上げ、実験計画法による要因分析を行った結果、第一位の要因は、都市構造で約36%を占め、続いて風速が第二位の要因で約24%の要因であり、第三位は、初期消火率、建ぺい率でそれぞれ約14%となった。これらの結果より、強風時という気象条件は外生的な要因であるが、これよりも都市の構造そのものが重要な要因であることを定量的に示すことができた。これらの結果は、裏返せば有効な都市のブロック化と消防力の整備による初期消火の重要性を示唆していると言えよう。
本研究を進めていく上で、延焼阻害要因であるオープンスペース(特に道路)の効果に着目するとともに、車両の炎上火災による新たな加害要因をも考慮すべきであるという、新たな視点を得ることができた。

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Grant amount：\2000000 （ Direct Cost: \2000000 ）

The expressways greatly benefit emergency transport services which are not often needed but are very important from societies' viewpoint. A method to evaluate the expressway network focused on emergency transport service is proposed in this study. This method is unique in the point that. The effect of expressway network improvement, is not evaluated based on a specified OD pattern but on that. produced by an optimal location problem.
The method is applyed to the expressway network development in Shikoku. Since Maximal Location Covering model is used, the uncovered population rate is a direct evaluation index of the expressway network development.
It. is found that the value of uncovered population rate can be fairly reduced by the expressway network development. The effect is seen in two aspects. One is the effect of higher speed on expressways. It. enlarges the extent of covered areas. The other is the effect of facility location change on the different road network. Generally, the difference of the value of uncovered population rate between the ordinary and the expressway network diminishes as the number of facilities increases. The larger values of the differences between the two networks are seen in the computation examples with fewer facilities and longer maximum allowable transfer time.
The expressway network development is generally more effective in the disaster case than in the normal case because the ordinary road network suffers from serious damage in the disaster case while the expressway network is more reliable.

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Grant amount：\1600000 （ Direct Cost: \1600000 ）

(1)地震時交通事故のペトリネットシミュレーション:ペトリネットによる交通流のシミュレーションには,車両進行ネットの自律型と,信号や右左折ネットの強制型安全確保機構とが組み込まれている.地震時には,これらネットに外力が働き,安全確保機構が破綻し,衝突事故が発生するとして,まず,地震外力を,作用頻度,事故誘因度,および作用時間の3つの要素で表現した安全確保機構の破綻化ネットを開発した.そして,このネットを既開発のシミュレーションネットに結合して,i)作用ポテンシャルを比較的小さく想定したとしても,交通量が20(台/分・レーン)になれば,事故リスクは無視できないこと,ii)交差点近辺や高速道路では軽微な事故でも大きな渋滞が惹起することを明らかにし,iii)日中の直下地震対策研究の重要性を示した.
(2)緊急車両の走行阻害のペトリネットシミュレーション:まず,前年度開発のシステムに,(1)一般車の退避運転の個人差,(2)緊急車両の大型車サイズ,(3)対向車線の交通量を考慮することで,システムネットの精緻化を行った.そして,この新システムを用いて,i)遅滞者が2割存在するとすれば,交通量が5(台/分・レーン)でも,緊急車両の走行速度は計画の半分以下に低下し,ii)信号交差点近辺では特に速度低下が大きくなり,iii)対向車線を含む信号制御系の維持と,余裕幅員の確保とその有効利用法が重要となることを示した.
(3)金沢市での適用研究と今後の課題:まず,東山地区を対象に災延焼のシミュレーションを行うと共に,広坂消防署からの緊急車両の出動を想定し,そのルート上の時間帯別交通量,沿道建物関連の阻害,橋梁被害の推定を行った.そして,前年度開発のマクロ消防活動ペトリネットに,新開発の緊急車両走行のミクロネットを結合化し,火炎延焼の阻止力の評価シミュレーションを実施し,日中の直下地震火災では,1地点火災でも初期制圧は困難なことを示した.今後は,さらに,i)衝突事故に伴う車両火炎リスクの評価や,ii)地震時交差点の全赤制御や災害時走行可能な中央分離帯形式等を組み入れた緊急車両走行のシミュレーションへと展開し,都市内に大量の車が存在する日中の直下地震対策研究を,より広範化,具体化する必要があると考えている.

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Grant amount：\1800000 （ Direct Cost: \1800000 ）

Parking Guidance and Information (PGI) systems provides location, direction and availability information of car parks to car drivers in order to redistribute parking demand and to reduce queues and congestion in the popular car park. This study aims to investigate actual drivers' behavior for PGI systems and to improve traffic network simulation model with car parks for estimating effects of PGI systems.
Drivers' response to the PGI system was studied using the survey in Matsuyama city including 17 car parks. In spite of the high awareness rate, the percentage of car drivers who used the system was relatively low and drivers did not change car park choice behavior as much as they might be. Theis means that there might be some actual constraints for drivers' car park choice such as shopping time and place constraints. PGI systems are expected to reduce those constraints.
The results of the behavioral analysis was incorporated into the simulation model, that consists of three sub models ; demand sub-model, performance sub-model and information providing sub-model. The demand model describes a driver's car park choice and route choice behavior. The performance sub-model calculates the movement of a vehicle in the network and car parks along the route given through the demand model. The information sub-model provides three different types of availability information. The location patterns of the message board in the network were compared. It is found that the message board should be located so that it would be available for drivers after changing the car parks of the first choice.

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Grant amount：\1600000 （ Direct Cost: \1600000 ）

地震時火災対策では,種々の活動阻害要因が作用する中での信頼性評価が必須となる.本研究では,阻害要因を制約型と切断型に分け,まず,抑止アークを活用したペトリネット表現法を開発した.そして,それらを出発点とし,その視覚性,結合性を活用することで,事前対策の有無や事後対応計画の良否等々も発想的にネットに組み込むことが可能であることを示した.次に,車社会の今日,緊急車両は一般車の渋滞の中を現場へと向かうとし,その走行阻害のペトリネット・シミュレーションシステムを具体化し,交通量が10台/分・レーン程度になれば,走行速度は計画速度の半分に低下する可能性があることを示した.
以上の基礎研究を基に,金沢市における防災拠点と火災現場を設定し,出火から通報・指令・出動を経て消化に至る消防活動の動的ペトリネットモデルを開発した.火災は,風化・風横・風上への延焼拡大のネットとし,その阻止の可能性を評価するネットを構成した.阻害要因としては,まず,各走行区間での一般車による制約型阻害を前出のシミュレーションと連動化させて組入れた.地震時の制約型阻害としては,通信系の障害,沿道施設からの落下物,路面被害,切断型阻害としては,液状化に伴う橋梁破損,水利網被害を抽出し,それぞれのペトリネットモデルを結合化させた.そして,適用地域の調査を基に,交通量は早朝・深夜と日中の2ケース,風速は2m/sと10m/sの2ケースを想定し,通常時と地震時での火災延焼阻止の阻害度分析シミュレーションを実施した.その結果,切断型阻害の発生が抑止できたとしても,地震が日中に発生すれば,風速が2m/sと弱くても,一般車による緊急車両の走行阻害により大火となる危険性が高いことを明らかにし,その対策研究の重要性を指摘し,本方法の適用可能性を含め今後の課題を整理した.

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Grant amount：\600000 （ Direct Cost: \600000 ）

Transportation demand management has recently attracted city planners' attention in developed countrics. There are several reasons for thinking that it is effective in those cities. One of them is the difficulty to physically improving the urban transportation network there. Expensive land prices and scarcity of space to accommodate transportation facilities in crowded city centers are common. Moreover, people in these cities become more conscious of quality of city life. Thus, they are induced to manage urban growth rather than investing in transportation facility improvement. Land use control is considered to be a powerful way of transportation demand management because it can manage original trip generation. Central city residing is more effective and feasible method than job dispersion policies.
The spatial structure of metropolitan area and trip to work pattern are studied in Osaka prefecture for the term of 1970-1990. It is found that a new trend of central city residing emerged in Osaka city in the early term of 1980's. The number of commuters increased 15% from 1980 to 1985 in the central city area of Osaka city. The extent is larger than that of suburban area at the time. The most commuters residing central city have shorter length trip to work and their main transportation way is walk, bicycle or bus. Thus the increase of commuters residing in central city contributed to the reduction of railway demand which is extremely crowded.
We proposed a new measure which evaluate zones in a city where urban land use activities are allocated from the viewpoint of transportation demand management. It is a location guidance measure. It combines the two components land use efficiency and traffic environment. Land use activity allocation using this measure leads to a land use pattern close to that of the planning goal problem in the sense of planning aim evaluation which maximizes land use efficiency under the allowed link congestion constraints.

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Grant amount：\900000 （ Direct Cost: \900000 ）

昭和54年4月11日,焼失棟数116棟(焼失面積1.4ha)の被害を出した富山県福光大火が発生した.この大火の特徴は,日本海特有のフェーン現象による強風下(瞬間風速15m/s)での火災の発生であった.このような強風のため,多くの飛火が発生し,出火から30分までに被災したほぼ全域に飛び火が広がり延焼拡大した.一方,消防力は,風下側への延焼拡大を最小限に止めるにとどまっている.
被災地の復興計画は,酒田大火復興計画と同様に土地区画整理事業が適用された.本研究では,福光大火を対象とし,13m四方の詳細メッシュを用いて都市構造データを採取分析し,火災延焼シミュレーション・システムの妥当性の検討,および復興市街地の耐火性の定量的評価を試みた.
はじめに,大火前の市街地の航空写真に,13m四方のメッシュをかけメッシュ・マップを作成した.そして,気象条件・飛び火等のデータをもとに,単位時間を1分とする,シミュレーション実験を行い比較検討した結果,全体の焼失面の形状や,焼失面積において,かなりの再現性が認められた.
つぎに,復興後の市街地のデータを採取し,気象条件,飛び火条件を想定し,新市街地の耐火性の評価を試みた結果,焼失面積は50%以上低減することを示すことができた.さらに,新築された家屋のなかには,防火木造建物や,屋根瓦の下張りに不燃材料を使用している住宅も多く見られ,復興後の新市街地では,飛び火発生数や着火確率は低下するものと考えられる.そこで,条件として飛び火着火・炎上確率を50%としたシミュレーション実験を行った結果,焼失面積は25%まで低減することを示すことができた.また,復興後の公園・幹線道路・アプローチ道路の配置計画により,消防力の効果も期待できるため,復興後の市街地の耐火性は大きく向上したと言えよう.

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Grant amount：\2000000 （ Direct Cost: \2000000 ）

More than 50 cities in the world have already installed Parking Guidance and Information (PGI) systems. PGI systems provides location, direction and availability information of car parks to car drivers in order to redistribute parking demand and to reduce queues and congestion in the popular car parks.This study aims to develop traffic network simulation model with car parks for estimating effects of PGI systems.
Three times of car park site survery have been made in Matsuyama city for understanding drivers'response to the PGI system. In spite of the high awareness rate, the percentage of car drivers who used the system was relatively low and drivers did not change car park choice behavior as much as they might be. According to the Stated Preference survey, different types of parking availability information were sufficiently important for car park choice.This means that there might be some actual constraints for drivers'car park choice such as shopping time and place constraints.PGI systems are expected to reduce those constraints.
The network simulation model consists of three sub models ; demand sub-model, performance sub-model and information providing sub-model. The demand model describes a driver's car park choice and route choice behavior. The performance submodel calculates the movement of a vehicle in the network and car parks along the route given through the demand model. The information sub-model provides three different types of availability information. The results of the model calculation showed that providing availability information would generally redistribute parking demand and reduce traveling and queuing time of car drivers in the network and car parks. However, it depends on the congestion level and FULL/SPACES information might not be always effective under the congested situation.

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Grant amount：\600000 （ Direct Cost: \600000 ）

フェーン現象時の強風下での火災や,地震時火災では,消防力は極度に低下する.消防力が極度に低下し,しかも同時多発型となる火災に対しては,耐震・耐火建物,道路・河川・空地に加えて樹木の防火力を生かした都市そのもののブロック化が最も有効なものとなる.研究代表者は,そのような防災緑地網整備計画構想の支援システムとして,メッシュ型の火災延焼シミュレーション・システムの開発を試みてきた.本研究では,比較的風速が小さいときには,火炎が大きくなり,風横緑地への輻射延焼の危険性があることを認識し,研究代表者のシミュレーション・システムのアルゴリズムの拡張化とそのシステムへの組入れを試みた.
風下方向の緑地メッシュについては,火炎の延焼面と緑地の樹木との位置関係,延焼面からの輻射受熱と樹木の発火ないしは引火限界熱量の関係によるアルゴリズムを開発し,このアルゴリズムに,風横メッシュによる風座標による探索と,焼け止まり分析に基づく,この緑地樹木への輻射熱量の算定法を組入れることで,基本アルゴリズムの拡張化を行った.この拡張化にともなって,緑地メッシュも,シミュレーション進行中に,複数の火炎面から輻射を受けるという状況が発生する.つぎに,この問題に対して,既開発の仮状態変数による状態確定ルーチンの拡張化を行い,シミュレーション・システムへの組入れを行った.そして,メッシュ・マップを想定し,シミュレーションを実施し、拡張システムの基本動作に問題がないことを確認した.また,システムを用いて樹木の高さと風速を変化させシミュレーションを実施し,本システムのより詳細な機能の確認と,防災緑地網の支援システムとしての基本的分析を試みた.そして,風横方向の緑地メッシュが,2m/sという比較的小さな風速下で炎上し,6m/sになると立ち消えとなるケースや,炎上するケースでも,樹木の高さによって,延焼を阻止している時間に差が出てくることなどを示した.

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Grant amount：\2000000 （ Direct Cost: \2000000 ）

本年度は,(1)地域の独自性を強く反映する必要のある道路整備計画の支援システムと,(2)整備計画の地図化システムの開発研究を中心に行った.(1)については,ISM-AHP連動化システムを開発した.地域のキャッチフレーズや重点施策,あるいは地域の意見を道路整備計画に反映させるためには,それらを評価構造に組み入れる必要がある.それにはISM法による構造化が有効である.その地域独自の,かつ客観性のある重み係数を定めるには,AHP法が有効となる.本研究では,骨格行列を介して両手法を連動化し,誰れもが容易に使用できるシステムを開発した.この評価では,概ね路線単位で整備順位がつく.そこで,(2)では,地域バランスや施工効率や予算制約が考慮できる地図化システムを開発した.まず,全地域の基本道路地図をベースに,各地域の詳細道路地図の表示が可能なシステムで,その上に,(1)のシステムで定まった順位に対して,指定した範囲の整備順位を持つ代替案が表示できる.ここで任意の代替案をクリックすると,別ウインドウにその代替案の個別データ(順位,選定理由,事業費など)が表示される.また,表示されている整備計画の総事業費の表示も可能である.さらに,代替案の削除・復活機能があり,計画者は,この地図システムの支援の下で,代替案を総合的に検討し,より現実的な整備計画を作成することが可能となる.本システムは,また,作成された整備計画の完成年度別表示により,地域の整備イメージ表示システムともなる.この他に,(3)道路利用者からみた整備水準の満足度評価と,ボトルネック解消効果の評価システム、(4)地域の液状化の空間分布の予測手法,ロマ・プリエタ地震を基に地盤評価の調査研究を行っている.

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Grant amount：\2200000 （ Direct Cost: \2200000 ）

北浦,宮島は,地盤被害の発生を契機とする地震災害チャ-トと,各部分での影響力推定式を提案し,消防力低下地域と出火危険予測サブ・システムを作成した.高山は,地震時の消防アクセス道路の通行障害は,まれな事象であり,木俣が開発してきた主観的順位付けシステムで個々の通行障害度を評価し,それらを用いて,各地域への消防車のアクセスのOD信頼性とSAT信頼性の両面より評価した.
木俣,二神は,防災緑地の不燃,立消え,炎上延焼判定アルゴリズムを,炎上側の輻射熱量,火炎高さ,火炎傾きと,緑地側の引火限界値,樹木量,樹木高さを基に作成し,既開発のメッシュ型の火災延焼シミュレ-ション・システムに組み入れ,さらに.XーWindowを導入することによって,緑地メッシュの延焼状態(不燃,立消え,炎上)とその状況(輻射受熱量,火炎高さ,火炎傾き),緑地メッシュ側のデ-タ(樹木量,樹木高さ),さらに,炎上メッシュ側のデ-タ(木造建ペイ率,空地率)や近傍メッシュのデ-タがウインドウで参照可能な支援システムとして開発した.計画者は,出火点予測システムを用いて,地域特性に応じた広域火炎延焼シミュレ-ションを繰り返し実施し,火炎延焼危険パタ-ンを把握し,まず,防炎緑地網(不燃メッシュ,河川・空地メッシュ,緑地メッシュよりなるライン)の基本線を設定する.そして,シミュレ-ションを再実施し,延焼がブロックされるように,ウインドウ機能活用して必要デ-タを参照し,基本線とその近傍メッシュの構成を詳細に検討・変更することが可能となる.
最後に,金沢市を事例にデ-タを採取し,このシステム支援機能を具体的に検証するとともに,金沢市の場合には,その特徴である市内を貫通する2つの河川と,寺院群とその周辺樹木とを活用した整備計画が,防災的にも有効で,かつ伝統都市美創出的にも望ましいことを示した.

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