Updated on 2025/05/30

写真a

 
Kurauchi Shinya
 
Organization
Graduate School of Science and Engineering (Engineering) Major of Science and Engineering Civil and Environmental Engineering Associate Professor
Title
Associate Professor
Contact information
メールアドレス
External link

Degree

  • 博士(工学) ( 名古屋大学 )

Research Interests

  • Travel Behavior Analysis

  • Transportation Planning

Research Areas

  • Social Infrastructure (Civil Engineering, Architecture, Disaster Prevention) / Civil engineering plan and transportation engineering  / Transportation Planning

Research History

  • Nagoya University Graduate School of Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering Civil Eng   Research Associates

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Committee Memberships

  • 愛媛県   愛媛県公共事業評価委員会 委員  

    2024.7   

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  • 愛媛県   愛媛県土地収用事業認定審査会 委員  

    2024.7   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 愛媛県内子町   内子町地域公共交通会議 委員  

    2024   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 愛媛県松山市   松山市地域公共交通会議 委員長  

    2024   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 愛媛県松山市   松山市都市再生協議会 会長  

    2023   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 土木学会   土木学会論文集編集委員会 D3分冊編集小委員会 委員  

    2021.6 - 2024.6   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  • 交通工学研究会   JSTEシンポジウム運営小委員会 幹事  

    2021.4 - 2022.3   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  • 松山市   松山市コンパクトシティ推進協議会 自転車検討部会 部会員  

    2021 - 2023.3   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 愛媛県松山市   松山市駅前広場整備基本設計及び社会実験業務委託選考委員会 外部専門員  

    2020.10 - 2021.3   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 愛媛県砥部町   砥部町地域公共交通会議 アドバイザー  

    2020.7   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 愛媛県   愛媛県大規模小売店舗立地審議会 委員  

    2020.6   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 国土交通省四国地方整備局   四国地方整備局入札監視委員会 委員  

    2020.4 - 2025.3   

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    Committee type:Government

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  • 特定非営利活動法人ITS Japan   第18回ITSシンポジウム2020プログラム委員会 委員  

    2020.3 - 2020.12   

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    Committee type:Other

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  • 日本都市計画学会   2021年度日本都市計画学会学術研究論文発表会(全国大会)実行委員会 委員  

    2020 - 2021   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  • 公益財団法人 高速道路調査会   高速道路での居眠り運転防止対策の効果に関する調査研究委員会 委員長  

    2019   

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    Committee type:Other

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  • 愛媛県東温市   東温スマートIC地区協議会 委員  

    2018.7   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 愛媛県久万高原町   久万高原町地域交通対策協議会 会長  

    2018.1   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 国土交通省四国地方整備局   事業評価監視委員会 委員  

    2017.4 - 2023.3   

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    Committee type:Government

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  • 交通工学研究会   松山都市圏事故リスクマネジメント研究会 委員  

    2017 - 2020   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  • 国土交通省   社会資本整備審議会 委員  

    2016.11   

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    Committee type:Government

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  • 松山市   松山市自転車等駐車対策協議会 会長  

    2016.8   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 愛媛県   愛媛県建築審査会 委員  

    2016.8   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 土木学会   土木計画学研究委員会春大会運営小委員会 開催校委員  

    2016.6 - 2017.6   

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    Committee type:Academic society

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  • 国土交通省四国地方整備局松山河川国道工事事務所   愛媛県渋滞対策協議会 委員  

    2016.1   

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    Committee type:Other

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  • 今治市   いまばり「サイクルシティ構想」地域再生協議会 学識経験者  

    2015.10 - 2016.3   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 松山市   松山市立地適正化及び交通網形成検討協議会自転車部会 部会長  

    2015.7 - 2020   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 愛媛県   松山空港アクセス向上検討会 委員兼幹事  

    2015.7 - 2018.3   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 国土交通省   地域道路経済戦略研究会 四国地方研究会 委員  

    2015   

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    Committee type:Government

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  • 交通工学研究会   交通事故リスクマネジメントに関する研究会 委員  

    2015 - 2018   

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  • 愛媛県   愛媛県建設工事総合評価審査委員会 委員  

    2014.9   

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    Committee type:Municipal

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  • 伊予市   中山スマートIC地区協議会 委員  

    2014.6   

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  • 愛媛県西条市   西条市地域公共交通活性化協議会 アドバイザー  

    2014.2   

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  • 国土交通省四国地方整備局松山河川国道工事事務所   愛媛県道路交通環境安全推進連絡会議 アドバイザー  

    2010.10   

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    Committee type:Other

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  • 国土交通省四国地方整備局   総合評価地域小委員会  

    2006.10 - 2020.3   

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    Committee type:Government

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Papers

  • Effectiveness of Accident Risk Information Based on Information Types Reviewed

    Tsubota, T., Yoshii, T., Kurauchi, S., Xing, J.

    Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies   15   2713 - 2728   2024

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

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  • Suppression and facilitation of streetscape memory caused by cognitive offloading: An analysis of the impact of smartphone photography on streetscape memory Reviewed

    Shirayanagi Hirotoshi, Nozoe Ami, Kurauchi Shinya

    Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan   59 ( 3 )   1044 - 1051   2024

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:The City Planning Institute of Japan  

    When recording information on digital devices, it is known that memories related to the recorded information fade, while memories of information encountered immediately after recording tend to be more easily retained. The suppression and facilitation of human memory due to the recording of information on such digital devices are explained by the operation of cognitive functions known as cognitive offloading. This study considers the act of taking photos with smartphones during a city tour as recording information onto digital devices. Firstly, it hypothesized that taking photos of streetscapes suppresses memory of the photographed streetscape. Secondly, it hypothesized that taking photos of streetscapes enhances memory of surrounding streetscapes not photographed. These hypotheses were tested by indoor experiments, which supported both hypotheses.

    DOI: 10.11361/journalcpij.59.1044

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  • 記憶の統合による歴史的建築物の忘却緩和効果 Reviewed

    Hirotoshi SHIRAYANAGI, Yuto MURAKAMI, Shinya KURAUCHI, Takahiro TSUBOTA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   78 ( 5 )   I_275 - I_287   2023

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.78.5_i_275

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  • かわまち結節点への視覚的繋がりが河川に関わる記憶の想起に与える影響分析 Reviewed

    Hirotoshi SHIRAYANAGI, Hikaru TSUJIO, Shinya KURAUCHI

    Japanese Journal of JSCE   79 ( 20 )   n/a - n/a   2023

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejj.23-20052

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  • IMPACT ON LOW-RISK ROUTE CHOICE BEHAVIOR BY USING COMMUNICATION METHOD ABOUT TRAFFIC ACCIDENT RISK Reviewed

    AHN Yoongho, NISHIUCHI Hiroaki, KURAUCHI Shinya, YOSHII Toshio, SANO Kazushi, DAITO Takehiko

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   78 ( 5 )   I_939 - I_949   2023

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    The objective of this study is to analyze the change in cognition and understanding about “Traffic accident risk” and the behavioral intensions change for safe driving by providing the driver with traffic accident risk information. In this study, in order to grasp changes of cognition and understanding about the concept of “Traffic accident risk” and the applicability of traffic accident risk information, multiple communication experiments about traffic accident risk information were conducted. After analyzing changes in cognition and behavioral intentions regarding traffic accident risk information in each experiment, long-term changes in cognition and behavioral intentions regarding traffic accident risk information were shown by comparing results of two experiments. In addition to that, the route choice experiment providing traffic risk information were conducted before and after provision communication information regarding traffic accident risk and the effects of communication on low accident risk route choice behavior were analyzed. It was found that subjects of experiments who correctly perceived “the relationship of the traffic accident risk between roads and highways” increased by communication and subjects who want to use the low accident risk route increased either. As shown results of route choice model providing traffic accident risk information, communications about traffic accident risk information provision affected low accident risk route choice behavior positively.

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.78.5_i_939

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  • Analysis on the Structure of Consciousness of Drivers with Rejection of Expressway Usage Focusing on Attitudes toward Traffic Accident Reviewed

    KURAUCHI Shinya, NAGASAKA Natsuki, YOSHII Toshio, SHIRAYANAGI Hirotoshi

    JSTE Journal of Traffic Engineering   8 ( 2 )   A_265 - A_272   2022.2

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    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author   Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Traffic Engineers  

    According to the traffic accident statistics in Japan, the accident rate for expressway is around 10 times lower than that for ordinary road. Therefore, analysis of driver's attitudes toward driving on the expressways is essential in order to examine effective traffic accident risk communication intended to enhance the expressway usage. This study investigated the driver's cognitive structure toward expressway usage focusing on the attitudes toward the traffic accident using a large-scale web-based questionnaire survey of daily drivers. The results showed that the fear of driving on the expressway had a dominant impact on the intention of its usage. Also shown was that many drivers who refuse the expressway usage tend to overestimate its accident risk, and are more likely to have a fear of what might happen on the expressway. Furthermore, while they are highly aware that whether or not an accident occurs depends on their own driving, they tend to lack confidence in their driving on the expressway.

    DOI: 10.14954/jste.8.2_a_265

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  • EFFECT OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENT INFORMATION PROVISION ON EXPRESSWAY NETWORK CONSIDERING INFORMATION TYPES Reviewed

    TSUBOTA Takahiro, YOSHII Toshio, KURAUCHI Shinya, XING Jian

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   77 ( 5 )   I_985 - I_993   2022

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.77.5_i_985

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  • THE EFFECT OF ATTENTIONAL BIAS TOWARD SHOP FACADE ON PREFERENCE JUDGEMENT Reviewed

    SHIRAYANAGI Hirotoshi, MURAKAMI Yuto, KURAUCHI Shinya, TSUBOTA Takahiro

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   77 ( 5 )   I_313 - I_320   2022

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.77.5_i_313

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  • AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF GAZE BIAS TOWARD SHOP FACADE ON PREFERENCE JUDGEMENT Reviewed

    Hirotoshi SHIRAYANAGI, Shinya KURAUCHI, Takahiro TSUBOTA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   76 ( 5 )   I_369 - I_376   2021

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    In this study, it was hypothesized that unintentional gaze bias toward shop facades would affect preference judgments, and this hypothesis was verified in a laboratory experiment. The preference for shops to which one’s gaze is directed is increased during the walking shop street. It has been shown that gaze bias is unintentionally directed toward the target that is to be preferred just previous to the preference judgment, and it has been suggested that such unintentional gaze bias may increase the preference for the target. In this study, it was examined whether the gaze is unintentionally biased toward the preferred shop facade image just previous to the judgment of preference and the effects of unintentional gaze bias towards the shop facade image that is to be preferred on shop facade preference were investigated based on a two-alternative forced-choice task. The results shows that gazes were unintentionally biased toward the shop facade images that were judged to be preferable just previous to the judgment of preference, and that unintentional gaze bias increased the confidence of preference judgments.

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.76.5_i_369

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  • AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF VISUAL LINKS TO THE RIVER ON ATTACHMENT TOWARD THE RIVER FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOCIETY WITH AWARENESS OF FLOOD DISASTER PREVENTION Reviewed

    Megumi KAGAWA, Hirotoshi SHIRAYANAGI, Shinya KURAUCHI, Toshio YOSHII

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   76 ( 5 )   I_409 - I_416   2021

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    In this study, it was hypothesized that visual links to the river would affect attachment towards the river, and this hypothesis was verified through a questionnaire survey. In order to promote rapid evacuation of residents at the time of a flood, it is necessary to develop awareness of flood disaster prevention. In order to develop awareness of disaster prevention, it is a necessary to have attachment towards natural capital, and this attachment is developed by recalling memories that were related to that capital. Although memory in relation to natural capital is suppressed by the fear of disaster, this suppression may be reduced by ensuring a visual link to the capital. In this study, the effects of visual links to the river on residents' memories of the river and the effects of such memories on their attachment to the river were examined. The results showed that residents with fear of disasters were more likely to recall the river as their visual link to the river was better assured, and their attachment towards the river increased as they recalled more of the river.

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.76.5_i_409

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  • Analysis of driving characteristics and effectiveness in travel time savings by rat-runners Reviewed

    LI Wenhao, KURAUCHI Shinya, YOSHII Toshio, TSUBOTA Takahiro

    JSTE Journal of Traffic Engineering   Vol.7 ( No.2 )   A_354 - A_361   2021

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Traffic Engineers  

    In urban areas, many people drive into narrow roads without signal lights to avoid congestion on arterial roads. This is, however, a great danger to the residents as well as pedestrians and cyclists. To solve this "rat-run" problem, it is indispensable to develop the consciousness of rat-runners.

    To this end, we consider providing factual examples that the disadvantages of taking rat-tun outweigh the disadvantages. This study is based on Matsuyama City, Ehime Prefecture, While verifying the effect of shortening the required time by rat-running, it also analyzed the driving characteristics of vehicles taking rat-run. As a result, due to the waiting time when merging to the main road and the influence of the signal system control, the effect of shortening the time when taking a rat-run becomes smaller. Besides, while taking rat-run frequently, vehicle speed tends to increase significantly when there is more congestion.

    DOI: 10.14954/jste.7.2_a_354

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  • Empirical Study on the Relationship between Accident Risk Information Attitude and Driver Safety Awareness by Accident Risk Information Provision Using Road Information Boards Reviewed

    HYODO Satoshi, NISHIUCHI Hiroaki, KURAUCHI Shinya, YOSHII Toshio, DAITO Takehiko

    JSTE Journal of Traffic Engineering   Vol.7 ( No.2 )   A_175 - A_184   2021

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Traffic Engineers  

    Accident risk communications including accident risk information provision are important approaches to raise a driver’s awareness of road traffic safety from a long-term perspective by providing the information via various information media. The objective of the study is to investigate the effects of accident risk information provision using road information boards. A questionnaire survey for a total of 681 drivers living in Ehime and Niigata prefecture. In this study, we examined whether accident risk information provision using road information boards contributes to improving accident risk information attitudes and driver safety awareness by using structural equation model. The results shows that individual information acquisition factors make effects on accident risk information attitude and driver’s awareness of road traffic safety. It also shows that the accident risk information attitude such as understanding level, convincing level and the driver’s awareness of road traffic safety improved the driver who received the accident risk information on the road information boards.

    DOI: 10.14954/jste.7.2_a_175

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  • An Analysis of Effect of Lateral Viewing on Visual Perception of Road Space Reviewed

    SHIRAYANAGI Hirotoshi, HAYASHI Shingo, KURAUCHI Shinya, YOSHII Toshio

    JSTE Journal of Traffic Engineering   Vol.7 ( No.2 )   A_119 - A_125   2021

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Traffic Engineers  

    Lateral viewing where the directions of the head and eyes are different and the change of the lateral viewing with time interferes with attentive visual search performance because visual attention resources are divided and coordinated into head and eye directions. In this study, we hypothesize that lateral viewing and the change of the viewing affects the duration required for visual perception of road space. Specifically, we focus on the lateral viewing of pedestrians when they cross a road and analyze the effect of the lateral viewing and the change of the viewing on the search time for a target stimulus in the road space by conducting a visual search task. The results showed that the longer the time required to search time for target stimulus in the road space, the greater the lateral viewing and the greater the change of the lateral viewing with time. The results supported the above hypothesis.

    DOI: 10.14954/jste.7.2_a_119

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  • An Analysis of the Impact of Attentional Momentum Effect on Driver's Ability of Awareness During Night-time Driving Reviewed

    Hirotoshi Shirayanagi, Toshio Yoshii, Shinya Kurauchi, Takahiro Tsubota

    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH   2020.11

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:SPRINGER  

    This study aims to demonstrate that driver's awareness during driving at night can be improved by attentional momentum effect. Driver's ability to be aware of pedestrians is often degraded due to the inhibition of return (hereafter, "IOR"). The IOR is the tendency that exogenous attention is suppressed toward the direction to which the driver previously referred. Previous studies have suggested that attentional momentum effect (hereafter, "AME") can relieve the effect of IOR. For example, IOR phenomenon appears when driver's exogenous attention is localized on roadside stores with high-illumination intensity. Focusing on the night-time driving, this study investigates the impact through a detection task based on dual-task setting. As a result, it was observed that the target detection was delayed under IOR condition, and the delay in target detection was improved under AME condition. This result supports that attentional momentum effect led to improve the driver's ability to be aware of objects during night time driving.

    DOI: 10.1007/s13177-020-00241-2

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  • Effect of Attentional Disengagement on Driver's habituation During Driving on an Expressway Reviewed

    SHIRAYANAGI Hirotoshi, KURAUCHI Shinya, TSUBOTA Takahiro

    JSTE Journal of Traffic Engineering   6 ( 2 )   A_303 - A_309   2020

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Traffic Engineers  

    <p>This study aims to demonstrate that driver's detection of a fallen object on an expressway can be improved by attentional disengagement. Driver's detection of a target often delays due to vigilance decrement, which is deterioration in the ability to keep attention to a target over a long period of time. Previous studies have suggested that instantaneous attentional disengagement from a target relieves vigilance decrement. It is considered that driver's attention tends to be located on a particular point in front for a long time which could cause vigilance decrement resulting in the delay in detection of a fallen object on an expressway. This study conducts a selective adaptation task to show that attentional disengagement relieves vigilance decrement during driving on an expressway. The response time of the disengaged condition was observed to be shorter than the engaged condition. This result suggested that attentional disengagement led to improve the driver's detection of a fallen object during driving on an expressway.</p>

    DOI: 10.14954/jste.6.2_A_303

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  • Effect of Accident Risk Information Provision to Traffic Accident Reduction Reviewed

    TSUBOTA Takahiro, YOSHII Toshio, SHIRAYANAGI Hirotoshi, KURAUCHI Shinya

    JSTE Journal of Traffic Engineering   6 ( 2 )   A_270 - A_279   2020

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Traffic Engineers  

    <p>Accident risk information system aims to reduce traffic accidents by navigating drivers to the routes with lower accident risk. This study quantitatively evaluates the effect of the accident risk information provision by utilizing a dynamic traffic simulation environment – SOUND. The simulation bed is constructed to model the wide-area road network of Matsuyama, Japan. Accident risk estimation models are embedded in the simulation to calculate the timedependent route cost considering the accident risk in addition to conventional cost terms such as travel time. The simulation estimates the traffic conditions when drivers acquire the accident risk information in their route choice. The effect of the information provision system is evaluated by comparing the expected number of accidents with and without the system. The results revealed that the drivers with accident risk information prefer to use routes with lower accident risk, and the total number of accidents could reduce by up to 4%.</p>

    DOI: 10.14954/jste.6.2_A_270

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  • An Analysis of Driver's Exogenous Attention During Driving at Night by a Pre-cueing Task Reviewed

    SHIRAYANAGI Hirotoshi, YOSHII Toshio, KURAUCHI Shinya, TSUBOTA Takahiro

    JSTE Journal of Traffic Engineering   6 ( 2 )   A_175 - A_182   2020

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Traffic Engineers  

    <p>This study aims to demonstrate that driver's cognition during driving at night can be improved by attentional momentum effect. Driver's cognition of a target often delays due to inhibition of return, which is that exogenous attention is suppressed orienting toward previously inspected locations. Previous studies have suggested that attentional momentum effect relieves inhibition of return. It is considered that driver's exogenous attention tends to be located on roadside -stores with high-illumination intensity which could cause the inhibition of return resulting in the delay in cognition of a target. This study conducts a pre-cueing task based on dual task paradigm to show attentional momentum effect relieves inhibition of return during driving at night. The response time of the attentional momentum condition was observed to be shorter than the inhibition of return condition. This result suggested that attentional momentum effect led to improve the driver's cognition during driving at night.</p>

    DOI: 10.14954/jste.6.2_A_175

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  • EFFECT OF ATTENTIONAL ENGAGEMENT TO THE TRADITIONAL JAPANESE-STYLE STREET FACADE BY MEMORY DRIVEN ATTENTIONAL CAPTURE Reviewed

    SHIRAYANAGI Hirotoshi, KURAUCHI Shinya, TSUBOTA Takahiro

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   75 ( 6 )   I_191 - I_197   2020

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    <p>The purpose of this study was to investigate the attentional engagement to the traditional Japanese-style street facades by memory driven attentional capture. When walking along the traditional Japanese-style streets, anyone has an experience that their eyes glued to the traditional Japanese-style street facades. Previous studies have suggested that the attentional engagement was facilitated for similar element that visual working memory held. From these previous studies, it was hypothesized that the visual working memory of traditional Japanese-style streets might cause the attentional engagement to traditional Japanese-style street facades and this hypothesis was examined by a visual search task. The results show that the attentional engagement to the Japanese street facade was caused by memory driven attentional capture.</p>

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.75.6_I_191

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  • IMPACT ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION PROVISION ON ACCIDENT RISK TO ENHANCE THE ARTERIAL ROAD USAGE Reviewed

    KURAUCHI Shinya, NISHIUCHI Hiroaki, YOSHII Toshio, DAITO Takehiko, OZAWA Yukiko

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   75 ( 6 )   I_463 - I_473   2020

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    <p>According to the traffic accident statistics in Japan, accident occurrence rate for residential road is around 2.4 times higher than that for arterial road. Despite this fact, a certain level of drivers might recognize driving on arterial road as more dangerous, resulting in avoiding arterial road usage. Therefore, this research investigated the driver's perceptions toward traffic accident rate, and then analysed the impact of information provision related to traffic accident risk. The results showed that about 30% of respondents perceived accident occurrence rate for arterial road higher than that of residential road. In addition, providing accident risk information might have greater potential to enhance the arterial road usage through the correction of perception bias.</p>

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.75.6_I_463

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  • UNDERSTANDING COGNITIVE BIAS PERCEPTIONSFOR TRAFFIC ACCIDENT RISK ON MATSUYAMA URBAN AREA CONSIDERING RESIDENTIAL STREET Reviewed

    NISHIUCHI Hiroaki, KURAUCHI Shinya, YOSHII Toshio, DAITO Takehiko, OZAWA Yukiko

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   75 ( 6 )   I_667 - I_674   2020

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    <p>This research analyzes the tendency of cognitive bias perceptions for traffic accident risk on the Matsuyama urban area considering residential street. This research conducted a questionnaire survey for the drivers living in Matsuyama city area to understand not only situation of residential street utilization, but also intention of main road and perception to traffic accident risk. It is to analyze how drivers recognize the traffic accident risk for both main road and residential street in Matsuyama city. The analysis results from questionnaire survey data describes that 40 – 50% of drivers currently recognized traffic accident risk which are risk to cause, risk of getting caught and fatal accident rate. In addition to that drivers who is thinking that they can avoid the risk to cause traffic accident on residential street and the risk of getting caught tends to overly evaluate sever accident rate on main road by examining estimated parameters from ordered response probit model.</p>

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  • Effect of Attentional Disengagement on Driver Inattention While Driving on Expressway Reviewed

    Hirotoshi SHIRAYANAGI, Shinya KURAUCHI, Takahiro TSUBOTA, Toshio YOSHII

    Journal of EASTS   13   2038 - 2048   2019.12

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  • Effect of visual stimulation of street facade on sense of recency - A study of sense of recency based on recency judgement task - Reviewed

    Hirotoshi Shirayanagi, Shinya Kurachi, Takahiro Tsubota

    Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan   54 ( 3 )   983 - 989   2019.10

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  • 高速道路における舗装路面性状を考慮した交通事故リスク分析 Reviewed

    坪田隆宏, 吉井稔雄, 白柳洋俊, 倉内慎也

    土木学会論文集D3(土木計画学)   75 ( 5 )   I_1081 - I_1087   2019

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  • Estimation of passengers' benefit accrued by expressway expansion using an integrated demand model Reviewed

    NISHI Masahiro, KURAUCHI Shinya, YOSHII Toshio, TSUBOTA Takahiro

    JSTE Journal of Traffic Engineering   5 ( 2 )   A_293 - A_302   2019

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    <p>This research estimated the passengers' benefit accrued by expressway expansion. An integrated travel demand model which is composed of mode choice, destination choice and trip generation model was developed in order to comprehensively assess the behavioral changes brought by expressway expansion. In addition, "travel time delay"was explicitly considered in the mode choice model as an indicator of travel time reliability. The result showed that the value of travel time reliability was around 40 times larger than that of travel time savings, and the amount of travel demands such as induced, transferred and shifted traffics would be too large to ignore even if the length of expressway expansion were relatively short distance. Also shown was that the passengers' benefit attributed to those demand accounts for approximately half of overall benefit. These results indicate that the current evaluation method based on the road network assignment model with fixed demand might seriously underestimate the passengers'benefit accrued by expressway expansions and mislead the policy decision to postpone them.</p>

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  • EFFECT OF REPEATED PRESENTATIONS OF JAPANESE STREET FACADE ON FALSE MEMORY O F JAPANESE FACADE ELEMENT Reviewed

    Hirotoshi Shirayanagi, Shinya Kurachi, Takahiro Tsubota

    75 ( 5 )   I_277 - I_284   2019

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  • TRAFFIC ACCIDENT RISK ESTIMATION MODEL FOR RESIDENTIAL STREETS USING ETC2.0 PROBE DATA Reviewed

    TSUBOTA Takahiro, YOSHII Toshio, KURAUCHI Shinya, YAMAMOTO Atsushi

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   74 ( 5 )   I_1029 - I_1035   2018

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    This study aims to develop traffic accident risk models for residential streets by utilising probe data. Residential streets are minor access roads in residential area for the residents to reach major arterial roads. The residential streets are not designed for heavy traffic, and thus are characterised by narrow road width and the absence of traffic lights. Nevertheless, they are often bypassed by through-traffic, due to which traffic accident risk is considered to be very high. However, the residential streets are rarely equipped with traffic sensors; traffic accident risk has not been evaluated in such minor roads, which hinders designing effective traffic safety measures. This study utilises probe vehicle information retrieved from ETC2.0 onboard equipments in order to estimate the traffic volume in the residential streets. Then, the traffic accident risks are estimated for different accident types, followed by the development of traffic accident risk estimation model based on linear regression analysis. A case study conducted in Matsuyama in Ehime prefecture revieled that the accident risk in residential areas near major arterial roads tend to be higher. The residential streets in office areas and in the areas with higher population of working ages are also identified as having higher accident risks. The findings would be useful inputs in planning the counter strategies and in prioritising the areas to be improved.

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  • A Study on Driver's Stopping Behavior Focusing on Change of Positive Reinforcer and Generalization Reviewed

    SHIRAYANAGI Hirotoshi, TAJI Shun, TSUBOTA Takahiro, KURAUCHI Shinya, YOSHII Toshio

    JSTE Journal of Traffic Engineering   4 ( 1 )   A_106 - A_112   2018

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    <p>This study investigates the relationship between driving experience and generalization of driver's stopping behavior. Previous research has suggested that an acquired behavior is triggered by positive reinforcement, and the same behavior is replicated by the same trigger in any situations once it is generalized. Driving behavior is a type of acquired behaviors, and therefore it is possible that a procedure in driving is generalized by accumulating driving experience. This study aims to relate the generalization of driver's stopping behavior to the driver's driving experience by comparing the stopping behavior in real space and virtual space presented by a driving simulator. The results showed that drivers with longer driving experience performed stopping behavior based on the same positive reinforcement regardless of the situations: real space or virtual space, which suggests that their stopping behavior is generalized. On the other hand, drivers with shorter driving experience did not exhibit the generalization in their behavior.</p>

    DOI: 10.14954/jste.4.1_A_106

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  • DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED TRAFFIC DATABASE FOR TRAFFIC ACCIDENT RISK INFORMATION PROVISION IN NIIGATA URBAN AREA AND ANALYSIS ON ROUTE CHOICE BEHAVIOR BASED ON STATED PREFERENCE SURVEY Reviewed

    NISHIUCHI Hiroaki, YOSHII Toshio, KURAUCHI Shinya, DAITO Takehiko, ICHIKAWA Nobuyuki

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   74 ( 5 )   I_1419 - I_1428   2018

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    This paper describes development of integrated traffic data base for traffic accident risk information provision on Niigata urban area road network. By cooperations of the Niigata National Highway Office, East Nippon Expressway Company and Niigata Police Agency, detector data, traffic accident records and road geometric design data and weather data has been integrated to be possible to compare the accident risk characteristics between different road types. Characteristics of traffic accident risk by several factors in study site has been analyzed. Results of the analysis quantitatively showed accident risk on expressway is much lower than other arterial road including Niigata-Shinshin bypass road. The analysis also showed that traffic congestion and weather condition (rain and snow fall) affect to occur higher accident risk traffic situation. In addition to that, stated preference survey designed based on actual situation of traffic accident risk on Niigata urban area is conducted to analyze route choice behavior of the driver in the study site. Binomial logit model that is driver choose expressway or arterial road in the study site is applied. Model parameter estimation results showed us that drivers tends to choose the lower accident risk road if the accident risk information is provided. Especially emphasized information such as accident risk on the road is ten times higher than the other road is preferred compared to numerical information. Moreover authors confirmed that estimated model can install into traffic simulation to evaluate traffic condition under traffic accident risk information provision, and discuss how to implement proposed traffic accident risk management schemes in the Niigata urban area.

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.74.I_1419

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  • Effect of Pavement Conditions on Accident Risk in Rural Expressways Reviewed

    Takahiro Tsubota, Toshio Yoshii, Hirotoshi Shirayanagi, Shinya Kurauchi

    2018 21ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS (ITSC)   3613 - 3618   2018

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    This study aims to reveal the effect of pavement conditions on traffic accident risk through statistical analysis. The current pavement maintenance is planned based on the road surface survey that measures the physical damage on the pavement surface. The indicators for the physical damage on road surface are good representation for the structural healthiness and the driving comfort, but they do not always measure the traffic safety levels of the pavement. This limitation hinders planning the pavement management scheme ideal in achieving safer driving environment. This study empirically analyzes the relationships between the pavement conditions and accident risk. The pavement conditions are represented by three indicators: rutting depth, IRI and cracking ratio. The accident frequency is modelled based on the Poisson regression analysis. The model estimation results showed that rutting depth could have significant impact in increasing accident risk, particularly in rainy weather, whereas the IRI shows inverse effect. For cracking ratio, the results were not conclusive, but suggested potential influence on accident risk.

    DOI: 10.1109/ITSC.2018.8569285

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  • An analysis of Traveler's Evaluation frame toward public transport focusing on dynamic nature of reference point Reviewed

    Sarif, Shinya Kurauchi, Toshio Yoshii

    International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology   8 ( 1 )   205 - 211   2018

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    The internal reference point of traveler's decision-making is dynamic in nature. Public transport ridership considers a decision based on the utility value of gains and losses which can be modeled by using mental accounting theory. The objective of this research is to investigate the dynamic of internal reference points for public transport ridership after implementing transport policies. It describes the decision of travelers' behavior when facing the dynamic value of the utility, whether it is increasing, decreases or stable. In this study, a traveler's behavior model based on mental accounting theory was developed. The result showed that the public transport ridership's are more likely to change their reference point when realizing gains than losses for transport policies. Furthermore, the way of public transport ridership combines the decrease and increase of the utility value showed that travelers tend to consider which gains and losses occurred simultaneously. Therefore, the integration outcome is more desirable than segregation outcomes, and revealed that mental accounting theory plays a major role in public transport ridership. This survey was conducted for the short-term distance trip, particularly in shopping trip from the residential area (origin) to Community Business District (destination) in Matsuyama city, Japan.

    DOI: 10.18517/ijaseit.8.1.4162

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  • Study of density over time by several approaches using individual and sample data in the mixed traffic Reviewed

    Fadly Arirja Gani, Toshio Yoshii, Shinya Kurauchi

    International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology   8 ( 1 )   68 - 77   2018

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    © Advanced Science Engineering Information Technology. 2018. At the macroscopic perspective, traffic analysis requires the knowledge of Fundamental Diagram, which involves the relationship between the variables of density, flow, and speed. As one of the macroscopic traffic flow variables, density can be derived by several approaches. At first, the density of traffic was measured over space, which difficult to be collected mainly in the long section of the road. Therefore, the density variable was simply derived from the fundamental relation of macroscopic traffic flow variable. By this method, the individual speed and flow variable are required in the local measurement. Both traffic density and flow will apply the concept of PCU, which refers to the Indonesian Highway Capacity Manual, 1997 to consider the different characteristic of the vehicle. In the mixed traffic of developing countries, providing traffic data was difficult due to the limitation of the traffic sensor infrastructures. Frequently, providing density variable relies on the sample data for speed analysis. In the present study, the estimation of density will focus on the local measurement over a time interval. By using individual data, density is proposed to be measured directly over time, in which the equation can be modified to utilize the sample data. The number of sample for speed analysis will be varied to know the accuracy and the performance of each approach in the density estimation of mixed traffic. Several approaches for density estimation will be summarized and compared each other. Theoretically, the estimated density which measured over time and space by using individual data can provide the most appropriate result. So, this estimated density will be established as an actual density throughout the study. Then, the performance of each approach either using individual or sample data will be evaluated upon the actual traffic density by mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The result shows by using the same trap length to measure the speed, the existing and the proposed approaches provide a good estimation of density either by utilizing individual data or sample data of the vehicle speed. This result was indicated by the MAPE value, which obtained under ten percent. Based on the further evaluation of the MAPE value, the performance of each approach was changed by utilizing the different category of data. In addition, estimation of traffic density which utilizes the sample data of vehicle speed has good reliability.

    DOI: 10.18517/ijaseit.8.1.4172

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  • ANALYSIS ON PERCEPTIONS OF ACCIDENT OCCURRENCE RATE AND SEVERE ACCIDENT RATE AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE FREQUENCY OF EXPRESSWAY USAGE Reviewed

    KURAUCHI Shinya, OHYAMA Takashi, YOSHII Toshio, SHIRAYANAGI Hirotoshi

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   74 ( 5 )   I_871 - I_878   2018

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    According to the traffic accident statistics in Japan, accident occurrence rate for expressway is around 10 times lower than that for ordinary road, and severe accident rates for both roads are at the same levels. Despite these statistics, a certain level of drivers might recognize expressway driving as more dangerous, resulting in avoiding expressway usage. Therefore, this research investigated the driver's perceptions toward traffic accident rate and severe accident rate based on a small-scale questionnaire survey for road users in Shikoku region. The results showed that about 20% of respondents perceived accident occurrence rate for expressway higher than that of ordinary road, and around 90% of respondents answered that severe accident rate for expressway is higher than that of ordinary road. In addition, the effects of these perceptions on the frequency of expressway usage was analysed using covariance structure model. The result showed that these perception biases would significantly decrease the frequency of expressway usage, and their impacts might be unignorable compared to those of travel time and expressway toll.

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.74.I_871

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  • Development of discrete choice model considering internal reference points and their effects in travel mode choice context Reviewed

    Sarif, Shinya Kurauchi, Toshio Yoshii

    IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science   71 ( 1 )   2017.6

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    In the conventional travel behavior models such as logit and probit, decision makers are assumed to conduct the absolute evaluations on the attributes of the choice alternatives. On the other hand, many researchers in cognitive psychology and marketing science have been suggesting that the perceptions of attributes are characterized by the benchmark called "reference points" and the relative evaluations based on them are often employed in various choice situations. Therefore, this study developed a travel behavior model based on the mental accounting theory in which the internal reference points are explicitly considered. A questionnaire survey about the shopping trip to the CBD in Matsuyama city was conducted, and then the roles of reference points in travel mode choice contexts were investigated. The result showed that the goodness-of-fit of the developed model was higher than that of the conventional model, indicating that the internal reference points might play the major roles in the choice of travel mode. Also shown was that the respondents seem to utilize various reference points: some tend to adopt the lowest fuel price they have experienced, others employ fare price they feel in perceptions of the travel cost.

    DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/71/1/012020

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  • The Suitable Index of Flow and Density in the Mixed Traffic Reviewed

    Fadly Arirja Gani, Toshio Yoshii, Shinya Kurauchi

    IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science   71 ( 1 )   2017.6

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    Some traffic indices were developed to consider the existence of vehicle variance either in the homogeneous or mixed traffic. This study investigates the proper index of flow and density in the mixed traffic. There are eight pairs of indices of traffic flow and density that will be compared, in which it was varied by the concept and the measurement interval. The concept was distinguished according to the respond to the variance of vehicles in the traffic analysis, and the measurement interval was differentiated over time and time-space. The traffic was observed over a short section of a road which set as the detection zone. All pairs of indices will be applied and evaluated on the Fundamental Diagram to describe the actual traffic state in the density-flow plane. Then, the R-square of each density-flow curve will be compared. The result shows that the existence of vehicle variance in the share of traffic can be described more properly by considering the projected area of vehicles. The index of flow and density which considers the projected area of vehicles can explain the actual traffic state more appropriately by increasing the R-square of the model. In addition, the result does not provide a significant difference between the measurement over time and time-space in a short section of the road.

    DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/71/1/012015

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  • The Suitable Measure of Flow and Concentration in the Mixed Traffic

    Fadly Arirja Gani, Toshio Yoshii, Shinya Kurauchi

    2nd International Conference on Transdiciplinary Research of Environmental Problems in Southeast Asia (TREPSEA) 2016   2016.6

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  • AN EXAMINATION OF THE ACCIDENT RISK UNIT ON NATIONAL HIGHWAYS Reviewed

    HYODO Satoshi, YOSHII Toshio, KURAUCHI Shinya

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   72 ( 5 )   I_1293 - I_1299   2016

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    Recently, the accident rates per vehicle-kilometers is generally used as the likelihood of accident occurrence evaluation unit. The evaluation unit is considered to be proper for a traffic accident on the controlled- access roads such as expressways. On the other hand, it is assumed that the traffic accident on the highways which have intersections are occurred more frequently when the driver passes through an intersection than passing through a basic road section. Therefore, the number of times of passing intersections is considered to be more proper as the evaluation unit than the vehicle-kilometer of travel. In this study, in order to consider the evaluation unit as the accident risk on the highways, a comparative analysis has been conducted to understand how the relationship between vehicle-kilometers and the number of times of passing intersections affect the accidents on highways. As the result of comparative analysis, it shows that the number of times of passing intersections has a strong impact on the multi-vehicle accident and collision of vehicle with pedestrian than the vehicle-kilometer of travel. On the other hand, the vehicle-kilometer of travel has more impact on the single-vehicle accident the number of times of passing intersections.

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.72.I_1293

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  • Impact study of various information about accident risk on driver’s route choice behavior Reviewed

    Kurauchi, S, Yoshii, T, Hyodo, S

    Proceedings of the the 6th International International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability   CD-ROM   2015.8

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  • ANALYSIS ON DIRECTIVITY OF MAC ADDRESS DETECTION FOR COLLECTING MOBILE DATA Reviewed

    NISHIUCHI Hiroaki, SHIOMI Yasuhiro, KURAUCHI Shinya, YOSHII Toshio, SUGA Yoshiki

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F3 (Civil Engineering Informatics)   71 ( 2 )   I_40 - I_46   2015

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    &nbsp;Development of traffic flow monitoring technology is required at areas where are not enough equipped traffic sensor infrastructure such as Asian countries and rural cities in Japan. Data collection from vehicles having smart phone and car navigation system has attracted attention to be one of the solution for those issues since these devices are installed Bluetooth devices that has unique MAC address, and matching of MAC address can collect traffic state data such as travel time, OD traffic volume and so on. However details of characteristics of MAC address data detection have not yet known to use for traffic state analysis. Therefore this research analyzes MAC address data detection rate from Bluetooth devices focusing on the distance and angle between MAC address scanner and transmitters. In addition, difference of setting way (horizontally and vertically placed) of MAC address scanner is also considered to analyze MAC address detection rate. Experiment results shows detection rate changed by distance, angle and setting way of MAC address scanner, and detection rate is significantly different by difference of those factors. Therefore hypothesis of this study what MAC address scanner has directivity to detect MAC address from Bluetooth devices has been supported statistically. And its results also showed importance of considering directivity for data collection from vehicles installing Bluetooth devices.

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  • The Relationship of Financial Requirement to the Driver’s Behavior in the Public Transport Service (Case Study: Makassar Public Transportation)

    Hajriyanti Yatmar, Hiroki Kamigaki, Shinya Kurauchi, Toshio Yoshii

    1st International Conference of Transdisciplinary Research on Environmental Problem in Southeastern Asia(TREPSEA)   2014.9

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  • Household car and motorcycle ownership in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur in comparison with Nagoya Reviewed

    Nobuhiro Sanko, Dilum Dissanayake, Shinya Kurauchi, Hiroaki Maesoba, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Takayuki Morikawa

    TRANSPORTMETRICA A-TRANSPORT SCIENCE   10 ( 3 )   187 - 213   2014.3

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    This study investigates household car and motorcycle ownership behaviours in the Asian metropolises of Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur (developing countries), and of Nagoya (developed country). Mode choice models are first estimated to calculate accessibility measures, and then car and motorcycle ownership models are estimated using bivariate ordered probit models with the accessibility measures as explanatory variables. Inter-regional comparisons and spatial transferability analysis are conducted. Results suggest that: (i) accessibility measures and car and motorcycle ownership behaviour are correlated; (ii) car and motorcycle ownership is substitutable in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, but is complementary in Nagoya; (iii) car and motorcycle ownership behaviour in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur is similar and quite distinct from Nagoya; and (iv) car and motorcycle ownership behaviour in Nagoya in 1981 was closer than the ownership behaviour in Nagoya in 1991 and 2001 to the behaviour in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur. Policy implications are also discussed.

    DOI: 10.1080/18128602.2012.726285

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  • Mode choice models' ability to express intention to change travel behaviour considering non-compensatory rules and latent variables Reviewed

    Nobuhiro Sanko, Takayuki Morikawa, Shinya Kurauchi

    IATSS Research   36 ( 2 )   129 - 138   2013.3

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    Disaggregate behaviour choice models have been improved in many aspects, but they are rarely evaluated from the viewpoint of their ability to express intention to change travel behaviour. This study compared various models, including objective and latent models and compensatory and non-compensatory decision-making models. Latent models contain latent factors calculated using the LISREL (linear structural relations) model. Non-compensatory models are based on a lexicographic-semiorder heuristic. This paper proposes 'probability increment' and 'joint probability increment' as indicators for evaluating the ability of these models to express intention to change travel behaviour. The application to commuting travel data in the Chukyo metropolitan area in Japan showed that the appropriate non-compensatory and latent models outperform other models. © 2012 International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2012.10.001

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  • ANALYSIS ON THE CAR OWNER'S INTENTION TOWARD CAR SHARING SERVICE IN THE PROVINCIAL CAPITAL CITY Reviewed

    KURAUCHI Shinya, ISHIMURA Tatsunori, YOSHII Toshio

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   69 ( 5 )   I_423 - I_431   2013

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    This research analysed the car owner's intention toward car sharing service in the provincial capital city. An in-depth interview survey was conducted in Matsuyama city to investigate the car usage, perception of the monetary cost related to car usage, perception of the existing car sharing service, and intention toward the hypothetical car sharing services. The results showed that the majority of car owners had not considered the overall cost related to car usage and they tend to overestimate it. Such respondents stated relatively high intention toward the car sharing service compared to the ones who underestimate the overall cost related to car usage. Also, it seems to be very important for the penetration of car sharing system to introduce a service which would reduce the user's anxiety about the availability of the service.

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  • Inter-regional and inter-temporal analysis of travel behaviour for Asian metropolitan cities: Case studies of Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, and Nagoya Reviewed

    Dilum Dissanayake, Shinya Kurauchi, Takayuki Morikawa, Satoko Ohashi

    TRANSPORT POLICY   19 ( 1 )   36 - 46   2012.1

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    The unprecedented demand for travel experienced in Asia, in conjunction with the economic development of the 1980s, has resulted in a number of detrimental effects on urban systems. Economic development has certainly intensified per capita income enhancing personal mobility. In Asia, private vehicle ownership and usage have continued to be recognised as an obligatory element of travel for many. Undoubtedly there is a direct relationship between vehicle ownership and public transport usage. Inter-regional and inter-temporal investigations of travel behaviour in Asian cities are therefore necessary to develop an understanding of the future transportation system including suitability and the role of public transport. Since travel data are scarce in Asian countries, inter-regional or inter-temporal travel behaviour investigations do not exist to date. Several travel demand models are developed using discrete choice modelling techniques and Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, and Nagoya as case studies. Estimation results of the mode choice models are successfully incorporated to compare travel behaviour trends in selected cities in Asia. The developed models are tested for spatial and temporal transferability. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2011.07.002

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  • 都市内高速道路における事故発生リスク要因分析 Reviewed

    吉井稔雄, 兵頭知, 倉内慎也

    交通工学研究発表会論文集(CD-ROM)   31st   ROMBUNNO.19   2011.8

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  • CLASSIFICATION OF WEEKDAY SHOPPING BEHAVIOR AND ITS DESTINATION CHOICE ANALYSIS BASED ON MATSUYAMA PT SURVEY DATA Reviewed

    前川朝尚, 倉内慎也

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   67 ( 5 )   67_I_749 - 67_I_757   2011

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    This study investigated the destination choice in shopping behavior in order to consider the measures against the problems such as the decline of CBD. A person trip survey data was utilized to assess the overall demand related to the shopping behavior in metropolitan area. Firstly, we clarified the shopping behavior according to the types of trip chain to investigate the relationships between shopping destinations and the mechanism of trip generation. Next, we quantified the attractiveness of shopping destination based on the Business Establishment / Company Statistics Investigation data so as to distinguish the large-scale retail stores and the shopping streets and to consider the diversity / concentration of each store categories. Finally, we developed a destination choice models for shopping behavior, in which above attractiveness measures were incorporated as the explanatory variables, and analyzed the properties of destination choice for each types of shopping behavior.

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  • APPLICABILITY OF THE METHODOLOGY TO MATCH DISTRIBUTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD AND PERSON ATTRIBUTES IN THE GENERATION OF SYNTHETIC POPULATIONS BASED ON PERSON-TRIP SURVEY DATA Reviewed

    倉内慎也, 萩尾龍彦, 石村龍則, 吉井稔雄

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   67 ( 5 )   67_I_759 - 67_I_767   2011

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    This study investigated the applicability of iterative proportional updating (IPU) algorithm to calculate the weight for each sample case obtained from the disaggregate survey so as to match distributions of household and person attributes in the generation of synthetic populations. The large-scale person-trip survey data conducted in Matsuyama metropolitan area was empirically applied as the disaggregate data, and the results showed that the excessive categorization of attributes would produce large errors due to the lack of sample case, sometimes inducing the failure to calculate the weight. Although the integration of the attribute categories would alleviate above problems, the excessive integration might induce the loss of original information, that is, heterogeneity of the sample case, undermining the advantage of micro-simulation approaches. Therefore, the consideration of sampling scheme is very crucial for the application of IPU algorithm (e.g. setting the sampling ratio for each attribute categories according to the marginal distributions of the population).

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.67.67_I_759

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  • INVESTIGATION OF THE POTENTIAL DEMAND FOR CAR SHARING IN MATSUYAMA METROPOLITAN AREA FOCUSING ON THE COST OF VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND USE Reviewed

    石村龍則, 倉内慎也, 萩尾龍彦

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)   67 ( 5 )   67_I_665 - 67_I_671   2011

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    This study aimed at getting the basic information that was necessary for the car sharing spread in Matsuyama that was a local city and analyzed latent demand. We compared a cost by the car sharing with a cost by car ownership, the use. If a cost was reduced by car sharing, We defined it when We could reduce the car and We could reduce it and carried out the estimate of an area with much number. As a result of analysis per 1st when We used PT investigation, We were able to reduce about 70% cars of Matsuyama. Reduction possibility is in particular high the second car of the city outskirts district. It was recognized that We could reduce about 70% cars by the analysis by the hit for one week when We used PP investigation.

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejipm.67.67_I_665

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  • APPLICABILITY OF THE METHODOLOGY TO MATCH DISTRIBUTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD AND PERSON ATTRIBUTES IN THE GENERATION OF SYNTHETIC POPULATIONS BASED ON PERSON-TRIP SURVEY DATA Reviewed

    倉内慎也, 萩尾龍彦, 石村龍則, 吉井稔雄

    土木計画学研究・論文集   67 ( 5 )   I_759 - 767   2011

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    This study investigated the applicability of iterative proportional updating (IPU) algorithm to calculate the weight for each sample case obtained from the disaggregate survey so as to match distributions of household and person attributes in the generation of synthetic populations. The large-scale person-trip survey data conducted in Matsuyama metropolitan area was empirically applied as the disaggregate data, and the results showed that the excessive categorization of attributes would produce large errors due to the lack of sample case, sometimes inducing the failure to calculate the weight. Although the integration of the attribute categories would alleviate above problems, the excessive integration might induce the loss of original information, that is, heterogeneity of the sample case, undermining the advantage of micro-simulation approaches. Therefore, the consideration of sampling scheme is very crucial for the application of IPU algorithm (e.g. setting the sampling ratio for each attribute categories according to the marginal distributions of the population).

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  • Analysis of Impacts on Vitalization in City Center by the Introduction of LRT : Application of Integrated Travel Demand Forecasting Model to Nagoya City Reviewed

    KANAMORI Ryo, MORIKAWA Takayuki, KURAUCHI Shinya

    Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan   45 ( 3 )   853 - 858   2010.10

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    Consensus building toward the introduction of LRT has often run into trouble since there are difficulties to quantitatively measure the effects such as modal shift from overdependence on automobile, reduction of environmental loads, vitalization in CBD and the improvement of urban landscape. This paper applied an integrated travel demand forecasting model in order to evaluate the impact on the central city invigoration by the introduction of LRT as well as the change of traffic conditions. As a result of application to the Nagoya metropolitan area, it was calculated that LRT would reduce the car usage in the CBD while it induce the trips by bicycle or walking. Also shown was that the number of visiting spots and the duration spent in the CBD would increase, implying that the introduction of LRT could be contributed to the vitalization in city center.

    DOI: 10.11361/journalcpij.45.3.853

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  • 環境配慮行動における他者の影響のモデル分析―交通エコポイント制度におけるポイント還元行動を対象として― Reviewed

    倉内慎也, 水場牧子, 森川高行

    土木計画学研究・論文集   26 ( 3 )   511 - 518   2009.9

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  • Inter-temporal analysis of household car and motorcycle ownership behaviors Reviewed

    Nobuhiro Sanko, Dilum Dissanayake, Shinya Kurauchi, Hiroaki Maesoba, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Takayuki Morikawa

    IATSS Research   33 ( 2 )   39 - 53   2009

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    This study investigates household car and motorcycle ownership in Nagoya metropolitan area of Japan. Bivariate ordered pro- bit models of household vehicle ownership were developed using the data from the case study area at three time points, 1981, 1991, and 2001. The accessibility that is generally known to be correlated with vehicle ownership decisions is incorporated as an input for the proposed vehicle ownership model to investigate the potential relationship between them. The mode choice models for the area were first estimated to quantify the accessibility indexes that were later integrated into the vehicle ownership models. Inter-temporal comparison and temporal transferability analysis were conducted. Some of the major findings suggest: 1) that age and gender differences have become less important in modal choices and car ownership as motorization proceeds
    2) that the accessibility seems to have a significant correlation with vehicle ownership
    3) that car and motorcycle ownership may not be independent and may have a complementary relationship
    and 4) that the deep insights concerning the model selection are obtained from the viewpoints of the temporal transferability.

    DOI: 10.1016/S0386-1112(14)60243-0

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  • Some practical issues of demand forecasting of new urban railroad utilizing RP and SP data Reviewed

    OGATA Shinichi, KURAUCHI Shinya, MORIKAWA Takayuki

    INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW   25 ( 25 )   701 - 708   2008

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    This study investigated the applicability of the demand forecasting models estimated from revealed preference and stated preference data, focusing on the practical issues such as the reliability of stated intention, treatment of the inertiaterm and the alternative-specific constants of new services, and survey design of SP experiment A panel data, which was collected in Nagoya city before and after a new subway service was started, was utilized to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the models. The results showed that the predictive accuracy highly depends on the treatment of stated intention and the interpretation of the inertia term, and may produce the serious biases in demand forecasting when discrepancy between stated intention and actual behavior was high. On the other hand, repeatedchoice data between existing alternatives with various hypothetical settings might be worth utilizing since it significantly improve the statistical efficiency of the estimated parameters and predictive accuracy.

    DOI: 10.2208/journalip.25.701

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  • Analysis on the Intra-and Inter-personal Variability of Preference for Transit Ride Point Program Reviewed

    SATO Hitomi, KURAUCHI Shinya, MORIKAWA Takayuki

    INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW   24 ( 24 )   619 - 627   2007

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    This study firstly analyzed the differences on preference for transit ride point program between non- participants and participants, and before/after the social experiment. The results showed that the participants seem to prefer the program than the non-participants, and state more preference after the participation in the program probably because of their satisfaction in the environmental contribution. Next, we investigated the variability of preference over the reward of transit ride point program using random coefficient model with psychological factors. The results showed that the altruistic reward such as the charity for the environmental activity could compensate for the monetary reward. Also shown is that the larger the monetary reward becomes the marginal utility of altruistic reward decreases, implying that altruistic motivation may decline as the monetary reward becomes large.

    DOI: 10.2208/journalip.24.619

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  • Investigation of the User's Responses toward the Point Program to Promote Public Transportation Usage : 'Travel Eco-point' Social Experiments in Nagoya Reviewed

    SATO Hitomi, KURAUCHI Shinya, MORIKAWA Takayuki, YAMAMOTO Toshiyuki

    Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan   41 ( 3 )   25 - 30   2006.10

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:The City Planning Institute of Japan  

    Promoting public transportation usage is crucial in order to solve problems such as traffic congestion and green house effects caused by motorization and car-oriented urban structure. This paper introduces a new TDM measure called 'Travel eco-point' program, in which one can acquire points when he/she uses environmentally friendly transportation system (e.g. public transportation) and can exchange the accumulated points to incentives for further eco-friendly travel behavior (e.g. provision of free rail tickets), and then reports the result of social experiments conducted in Nagoya. Furthermore, we investigated user's preferences toward the eco-point program and found that people seem to prefer the program through which they can return their profit to environmental improvement as well as the program with high refund rate.

    DOI: 10.11361/journalcpij.41.3.25

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  • Analysis on Psychological Factors Affecting the Intention of Participating in &lsquo;Eco-Travel Point&rsquo; Program and the Behavior of Travel Mode Choice Reviewed

    KURAUCHI Shinya, NAGASE Takatoshi, MORIKAWA Takayuki, YAMAMOTO Toshiyuki, SATO Hitomi

    INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW   23 ( 23 )   575 - 583   2006

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    This study investigated the potential user responses toward &lsquo;Eco-Travel Point&rsquo; program, in which one can acquire points when he/she uses environmentally friendly transportation system such as public transportation and can exchange the accumulated points to further incentives for environmentally friendly travel behavior such as transit tickets. The result shows that psychological factors such as environment consciousness significantly affect the individuals' mode choice behavior, implying that Eco-Travel Point program can enhance the public transportation usage. Furthermore, the attitude for transportation issues and propensity for point collection might be the main factors which affect the intention to participate in the program.

    DOI: 10.2208/journalip.23.575

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  • Driver's route choice behavior and its implications on network simulation and traffic assignment Reviewed

    Takayuki Morikawa, Tomio Miwa, Shinya Kurauchi, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Kei Kobayashi

    Operations Research/ Computer Science Interfaces Series   31   341 - 369   2005.12

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    The principle of driver&#039;s route choice has long been the shortest path with a fixed time penalty of a toll. It is also understood that traffic is assigned on the road network based on user equilibrium with perfect information assumption. This paper demonstrates two empirical studies that pose questions to these traditional assumptions, to better understand route choice behavior. Multi-class user equilibrium assignment with imperfectly informed drivers&#039; classes is applied to a metropolitan area network first. Next, route choice behavior is directly observed and analyzed using probe&#039; car data.

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  • Preliminary Analysis on Dynamic Route Choice Behavior Using Probe-Vehicle Data

    Tomio Miwa, Takayuki MORIKAWA, Shinya KURAUCHI

    INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW   22   467 - 476   2005

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    Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    DOI: 10.2208/journalip.22.467

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  • An analysis of shopping behavior focusing on difference among items and destination choice Reviewed

    LI Cheng, YAMAMOTO Toshiyuki, KURAUCHI Shinya, MORIKAWA Takayuki

    INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW   21 ( 21 )   561 - 569   2004

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    This paper aims to deep understand consumer's shopping behavior focusing on difference among items and destination choice. Firstly, cross tabulation is applied to clarify the relations between commute mode and revealed shopping behavior, such as the influence of commute mode on the frequency, the store choice, and so on. Then, the multinomial logit models of the shopping destination choice for railway commuters are developed for each category of shopping items. The six models constructed in this study revealed the differences as well as the interactions among items. These fundamental insights will prove very useful in the urban renascence.

    DOI: 10.2208/journalip.21.561

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  • 新たな選択肢集合への追加過程に関する研究

    李 成, 山本 俊行, 倉内 慎也, 森川 高行

    日本行動計量学会大会発表論文抄録集   31   368 - 369   2003.9

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  • Travel demand modeling in Asian cities: Case study of Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Nagoya Reviewed

    D Dissanayake, S Ohashi, T Morikawa, S Kurauchi

    PROCEEDINGS OF THE EASTERN ASIA SOCIETY FOR TRANSPORTATION STUDIES, Vol 4, Nos 1 AND 2   4 ( 1-2 )   1059 - 1068   2003

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (international conference proceedings)   Publisher:EASTERN ASIA SOC TRANSPORTAT STUDIES  

    Increasing vehicle ownership and usage is becoming a great threat to the urban environment in Asian cities. Economic growth and its related effects such as changing status of income and mobility make the travelers to own private vehicles. Also, insufficient supply and inferior quality public transportation may encourage travelers to own and use private vehicles. Therefore, investigation of travel demand is found as an urgent issue in Asian countries. This study attempts to develop travel demand models using discrete choice modeling techniques and to analyze data from three Asian cities of Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Nagoya. The outcome of the developed models is expected to use for investigating vehicle ownership in the cities concerned and a framework is proposed for future prospects of this study.

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  • EXPANSION OF RATIONALITIES AND ITS IMPLICATION TO INDIVIDUAL CHOICE MODELS Reviewed

    MORIKAWA Takayuki, KURAUCHI Shinya

    土木学会論文集 = Proceedings of JSCE   702 ( IV-55/ )   15 - 29   2002.4

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:土木学会  

    DOI: 10.2208/jscej.2002.702_15

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  • Empirical Analysis on Variation of Value of Travel Time Using SP Data Reviewed

    MORIKAWA Takayuki, JIANG Meilan, SOBUE Seiji, KURAUCHI Shinya

    INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW   19(3) ( 19 )   513 - 520   2002

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    This paper theoretically and empirically analyzed how value of travel time varies according to travel time and travelers. A nationwide stated preference survey about choice between general route and tolled route provides the data source for the empirical analysis. A discrete route choice model, which considers non-linearity of time and correlation of individual characteristics to travel cost, is used. The results show that value of travel time increases with travel time increases, and vary with travel purposes and travelers age, occupations so on.

    DOI: 10.2208/journalip.19.513

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  • A study on nested logit mode choice model for intercity high-speed rail system with combined RP/SP data Reviewed

    EJ Yao, T Morikawa, S Kurauchi, T Tokida

    TRAFFIC AND TRANSPORTATION STUDIES, VOLS 1 AND 2, PROCEEDINGS   Vol.1   612 - 619   2002

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (international conference proceedings)   Publisher:AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS  

    This research analyzes the demand for intercity high-speed rail (HSR) system planned in Japan with the integrated demand forecasting model. The model integrates choice of routes and modes is estimated from a combined stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) data. The SP/RP combined estimation method exploits the advantages of both data sets while mitigating the weaknesses of each. The SP survey is conducted to elicit preference for the non-existing, high-speed rail together with the RP survey on the actual intercity mode choice for the specific corridor. Considering the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) attribute, a nested structure is applied to these alternatives and the advantages of the nested logit model with the combined SP/RP data are discussed in this paper.

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  • Comparison of Non-compensatory Models of Driver's choice on Dynamic Park and Ride Reviewed

    Proceedings of the 9th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems   CD-ROM - KS004995   2002

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  • An exploratory analysis for discrete choice model with latent classes considering heterogeneity of decision making rules Reviewed

    S Kurauchi, T Morikawa

    TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR RESEARCH: THE LEADING EDGE   409 - 423   2001

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (international conference proceedings)   Publisher:PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD  

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  • A Model Analysis of Travel Behavior Changes with Pre-Trip Information Provision Considering Transaction Cost Reviewed

    KURAUCHI Shinya, MORIKAWA Takayuki, OKADA Yoshiyuki, SASAKI Kuniaki

    INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW   16 ( 16 )   763 - 768   1999

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    This research proposes a methodology to quantitatively evaluate the impact of traveler's pre-trip information considering transaction cost for travel behavior changes. The transaction cost is defined as the difference of expected utilities which are observed before and after travel behavior changes, and is estimated using a discrete choice model which represents mode choice behavior with and without the information on travel time respectively. The model is estimated with mode choice RP data and SP data for hypothetical information provision. Furthermore, we empirically analyze the impact of pre-trip information provision to enhance new transportation services such as Park and Ride.

    DOI: 10.2208/journalip.16.763

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  • Forecasting paratransit ridership using discrete choice models with explicit consideration of availability Reviewed

    J Benjamin, S Kurauchi, T Morikawa, A Polydoropoulou, K Sasaki, M Ben-Akiva

    TRANSIT PLANNING, MANAGEMENT, MARKETING, NEW TECHNOLOGY, CAPACITY, AND QUALITY OF SERVICE   1618 ( 1618 )   60 - 65   1998

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:NATL ACAD SCI  

    In most developed countries, the population of the elderly and disabled is growing rapidly. These individuals require transportation service suited to their needs. Such service may be provided by applying emerging technologies to dial-a-ride transit. This research develops a methodology to quantitatively evaluate the impact of paratransit services on a traveler's mode choice behavior. The mode choice model explicitly considers availability of alternative modes and includes latent factors to account for taste heterogeneity. Stated preferences are also used to elicit preferences for new paratransit services. The methodology is empirically tested with data collected in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. The model system developed is applied to evaluate the effect of improving service attributes and the impact of the introduction of new cost-effective modes on modal shares. Results of the policy analysis indicate that (a) transit policy changes, such as fare reduction, would have little effect on automobile driver and automobile passenger shares; (b) an improved reservation system for dial-a-ride services would produce shifts in mode share; (c) the proposed new bus deviation service was favored; (d) free bus service reduces dial-a-ride share; and (e) an increase in awareness of a dial-a-ride system would significantly increase its share.

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  • Forecasting Paratransit Ridership Using Discrete Choice Models with Explicit Consideration of Availability Reviewed

    Proceedings of International Symposium on City Planning   519 - 528   1997

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Books

  • 交通事故リスクマネジメントハンドブック

    交通工学研究会交通事故リスクマネジメント研究会( Role: Contributor第Ⅱ編1.2)

    丸善出版  2023 

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  • 土木計画学ハンドブック

    土木計画学ハンドブック編集委員会( Role: ContributorⅠ編4.1.2項)

    コロナ社  2017 

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  • 地球温暖化防止に向けた都市交通-対策効果算出法とESTの先進都市に学ぶ-

    交通工学研究会EST普及研究グループ( Role: Contributor第2章)

    交通工学研究会  2009 

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Presentations

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Industrial property rights

Works

  • 意思決定の状況依存性と行動変化に着目した動的な経路選択モデルの開発

    2004 - 2006

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  • 交通意思決定に用いられる意思決定方略の個人間異質性及び状況依存性に関する研究

    2002 - 2003

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  • 個人の限定合理性を考慮した一週間単位の交通行動及び活動意思決定のモデル分析

    2000 - 2002

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Awards

  • 移動者マーケティング研究コンペティション奨励賞

    2000  

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    Country:Japan

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Research Projects

  • Network traffic management focussing on Breakdown Risk using MFD

    2015.4 - 2018.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    YOSHII TOSHIO

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    Grant amount:\17550000 ( Direct Cost: \13500000 、 Indirect Cost:\4050000 )

    A method of evaluating the risk is developed, which consists of traffic congestion risk, traffic accident risk, and environmental risk, when the network traffic flow breakdown phenomenon occurs. As for the evaluation of traffic congestion risk, we develop a network traffic simulation model which can deal with the demand change by incorporating the driver behavior model. The traffic accident risk and environmental risk are evaluated based on the output of the simulation model. A hysteresis analysis of the aggregated QK was carried out, and MFD on road networks in the center of the capital of 47 prefectures are analyzed for understanding their characteristics.

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  • Investigation of travelers evaluations toward transport services and its implication for transport fare and taxation policies

    2013.4 - 2016.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    Kurauchi Shinya

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    Grant amount:\5070000 ( Direct Cost: \3900000 、 Indirect Cost:\1170000 )

    This study investigated the traveler’s cognitive processes toward the various transport fare policies realized by utilizing travel IC card and ETC systems. Some travel behavior models which explicitly consider the traveler’s evaluation frames toward the policies were developed and then applied in order to evaluate which types of policies would be the most desirable from the cost-effectiveness point of view. Furthermore, a new fare policy which reflects the externalities induced by traffic accidents as well as traffic congestion was suggested and its potential impacts were evaluated. Also, the mechanism of public acceptance toward those policies was modeled and the differences between policies were analyzed.

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  • Study on new road pricing schemes toward new generation vehicle era

    2012.4 - 2016.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

    Morikawa Takayuki, YAMAMOTO Toshiyuki, MIWA Tomio, SASAKI Kuniaki, KURAUCHI Shinya, KANAMORI Ryo, USUI Tomotaka, SATO Hitomi, KITAMURA Seisyu

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    Grant amount:\45760000 ( Direct Cost: \35200000 、 Indirect Cost:\10560000 )

    The current focil fuel tax for road users has been accepted by public because it basically follows the beneficiary-pays principle. This taxation, however, will deviate from the principle when electric vehicles (hereafter EVs) reach masses. Toward the electric vehicle era, therefore, new policies such as road user charge system are needed.
    In this study, we analyzed proper toll amounts according to congestion levels, publically acceptable schemes, and EVs future demand. The results show that proper toll amounts of expressway to reduce congestion are -10 JPY for terminal charge, +5 JPY/km, and -17 JPY/km for distance charge in congested and non-congested road, respectively. Secondly, it was found that using the money from the road user charge for road maintenance raises the acceptability of pricing scheme. We also found that EV's demand is higher in suburban areas than city center.

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  • Upgrading of the synthetic travel behavioral survey incorporating the data fusion theory based on probe technologies

    2009 - 2012

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

    HATO Eiji, ASAKURA Yasuo, YAMAMOTO Toshiyuki, MORIKAWA Takayuki, KAWANO Hiroyuki, KURAUCHI Shinya, ZHANG Junyi, TAKAMI Atsushi, IRYO Takamasa, SASAKI Kuniaki

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    Grant amount:\44460000 ( Direct Cost: \34200000 、 Indirect Cost:\10260000 )

    It turns to the advancement of the synthetic behavioral survey by the data fusion theory which used probe technology, development of the automatic identification algorithm of the behavioral context, the traffic survey and management systems based on probe data, and the mobility service incorporating these have been done. While the possibility of the synthetic behavioral survey which used for the probe technology which can store the same individual's time series behavior data was shown, possibility of probe technologies towards evaluations of various real-time transportation policies. By combining an Adaboost algorithm with SVM according to using especially sensor information, It succeeded in enabling automatic travel behavior identification by95% or more using the smart phone which has an accelerometer. With constituting the synthetic travel behavior data platform which combined PP technologies and PT survey data, the possibility was shown about the shift to all the year type travel survey from the one-shot travel survey, and transport planning using synthetic advanced travel survey technologies.

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  • Development of a Multi Agent Participatory Simulation System with Social Interaction

    2008 - 2011

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

    YOSHII Toshio, KIKUCHI Akira, UNO Nobuhiro, FUJII Satoshi, YAMAMOTO Toshiyuki, OKUSHIMA Masashi, NAKAYAMA Shoichirou, KURAUCHI Shinya

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    Grant amount:\25090000 ( Direct Cost: \19300000 、 Indirect Cost:\5790000 )

    In this research, the multi agent travel behavior simulation system endogenizing social interaction is developed and we apply this system to the influence analysis for traffic regulations under road maintenance and the analysis of pro-environmental behavior. Moreover, extending this simulation system, we propose the experiment simulation system with participatory simulation technology that includes subjects in traffic simulation. And we developed a simple integrated model to account for endogenous changes in land-use and public-transportation-LOS for long-term demand prediction with simulation system.

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  • An analysis on the traveler's cognitive processes toward transport services and its implication for the fare policies

    2008 - 2009

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

    KURAUCHI Shinya

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    Grant amount:\4290000 ( Direct Cost: \3300000 、 Indirect Cost:\990000 )

    Recently, travel IC card has been rapidly prevailing around the world and it enables the transport service providers to provide wide variety of services corresponding to the travel demand. This study investigated the traveler's cognitive processes toward the transport services, and then evaluated which types of services would be the most desirable from the cost-effectiveness point of view.

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  • Problem solution for making probe-vehicle data as foundational traffic information source

    2006 - 2007

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    MORIKAWA Takayuki, YAMAMOTO Toshiyuki, KURAUCHI Shinya, MIWA Tomio

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    Grant amount:\17000000 ( Direct Cost: \14900000 、 Indirect Cost:\2100000 )

    With the development of the information and communication technology, a probe car system that collects traffic information from the vehicles cruising on the road network is attracting attention. Particularly, probe-vehicle system has many advantages ; e.g. the system can collect traffic information from all road sections where the probe-vehicle cruises, obtain various information such as vehicular acceleration and cruising route, and so on. However, it is necessary for implementation of wide-area probe-vehicle system to solve a lot of problems ; presentation of usability as traffic information and establishment of method for utilization and for effectively gathering information and provision of information. This research developed and investigated several technologies in response to above problems.
    First, to present a usability of probe-vehicle data as traffic intonation, the route guide system using the probe-vehicle data was developed. The result of competitive experiment with the navigation systems in the market showed the superiority of utilization of probe-vehicle data. In addition, the effect of route guidance of the developed system was shown from the route guidance experiment in commuting situation. Second, various methods for effective utilization of probe-vehicle data were established. Especially, this research showed that probe-vehicle data enables us to analyze drivers' route dots behavior to the last detail, to vent/ the effects of coordinated signal control, to identify the common site of traffic accidents and the probe-vehicle data can be utilized for updating dynamic O-D matrices. Furthermore, this research examined that the efficiency improvement of the data collection. After clarifying that the probe data collection frequency has a significant influence on the implementation of the large scale probe system, several techniques for using infrequent probe-vehicle data were developed and the optimal location .problem of probe-vehicle was studied. A lot of problem for the implementation of a wide-area probe-vehicle system were solved by executing this research.

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  • プローブカーデータを利用した動的経路誘導システム構築のための基礎的研究開発

    2004 - 2005

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業 萌芽研究  萌芽研究

    森川 高行, 山本 俊行, 倉内 慎也, 三輪 富生

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    Grant amount:\3500000 ( Direct Cost: \3500000 )

    昨年度開発した動的経路誘導システム『PRONAVI』をベースに,要素技術に関する基礎的研究を行った.
    プローブ情報は,広範囲の道路交通情報を収集可能であるが,プローブカーが走行した道路区間,時刻のみの情報が利用可能である.そこで,リアルタイムの交通状態変化をより正確に把握することが可能なVICSデータとの融合方法を開発した.具体的には,VICS情報から混雑や渋滞が発生したリンクを特定し,これを旅行時間情報に変換した上で蓄積されたプローブ情報と比較する.これにより,非日常的に発生した混雑や渋滞を旅行時間予測に効率的に利用することが可能となった.また,旅行時間予測精度の向上を図るため,交差点右左折時の遅れ時間を分析し,その結果を反映した最適経路案内システムを構築した.そして,それらの要素技術をPRONAVIに実装し,昨年度のシステムと比較して旅行時間予測精度が大きく向上することを実証した.
    次に,より環境負荷の少ない公共交通への転換機会を創出するため,名古屋都市圏を網羅する鉄道ネットワークや時刻表データベースを構築し,そこにパークアンドライド駐車場の情報をも組み込んだマルチモード経路案内システムを構築した.また,それをPRONAVIに実装した上でインターネットを介した情報提供実験を行い,モニターの高い受容性を確認した.
    ここで,より広範囲でプローブ情報の収集・提供を行うためには,データ通信コストの大幅な削減が必要となる.そこで,プローブカーの通信頻度について検討を行い,旅行時間予測を行うために必要なデータ通信頻度を明らかにし,既存の車両管理システム等の低頻度データを用いても旅行時間予測が可能となることを示した.
    さらには,動的交通シミュレータの開発,ならびにそれを用いたプローブ旅行時間情報に基づく動的OD交通量推定アルゴリズムを開発し,交通需要の変動を精緻に再現できることを確認した.

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  • 意思決定の状況依存性と行動変化に着目した動的な経路選択モデルの開発

    2004 - 2005

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業 若手研究(B)  若手研究(B)

    倉内 慎也

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    Grant amount:\2400000 ( Direct Cost: \2400000 )

    本年度は,(1)前年度構築した意思決定時点を内生化した経路選択モデルの改良,(2)動的交通流シミュレータの開発,ならびに,(3)開発した経路選択モデルの動的交通流シミュレータへの実装,を行った.
    (1)については,ドライバーの経路選択意思決定をより忠実に再現するために,まず経路選択行動特性の精査を行った.その結果,認知所要時間は出発時間帯ごとに異なり,特にピーク時間帯ほど細かい時間帯幅で所要時間を認知していること,また,出発時点と経路途上での意思決定が有意に異なることを確認した.次いで,それらを反映した動的な経路選択モデルを構築し,研究代表者が保有するプローブカーデータを用いてモデル推定を行った.
    (2)については,経路選択モデルとの整合性を考慮し,プローブカーデータに基づく動的交通流シミュレータを開発した.都市圏レベルの道路ネットワークへ適用するため,開発したシミュレータはメソシミュレータであるが,リンクコスト関数をプローブカーデータに基づいて推定し,また,プローブカーデータから動的OD交通量が推定可能なエンジンを開発・実装している点に特長がある.開発したシミュレータの性能を吉祥寺ベンチマークデータを用いて検証した結果,十分な現況再現性があることを確認した.
    (3)については,(1)で構築した経路選択モデルを,(2)で開発したシミュレータに実装し,静的なモデルを実装した場合との比較を行った.その結果,静的なモデルを実装した場合に見受けられる頻繁な右左折が回避されると同時に,リンク交通量の現況再現性が向上することを確認した.
    今後は,どのような場合に情報検索が行われるのかについて実車実験などを実施し,収集したデータから情報探索モデルを構築し,それを実装したシミュレータにより情報提供効果の分析を行う予定である.

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  • A study on Travel Demand Forecasting for Various New Transportation Services Utilizing Multiple Data Sources

    2003 - 2004

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    MORIKAWA Takayuki, YAMAMOTO Toshiyuki, KURAUCHI Shinya

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    Grant amount:\5700000 ( Direct Cost: \5700000 )

    This research aims to improve the travel demand forecasting for new transportation services. We especially focused on disaggregate discrete choice models which have been widely applied for travel demand analysis due to its tractability and flexible structure.
    Firstly, we conducted a post-project evaluation of the demand forecast for a new transit system which was based on the conventional four-step demand forecasting procedure. The result showed that the temporal transferability of the demand model, especially modal split model, seems to be low and the evaluation of the effect of access travel might be a crucial factor in demand forecasting for a new transit system. We, therefore, examined the transferability of disaggregate mode choice model using repeated cross-sectional person trip data and investigated factors which affects the temporal transferability. Also, we investigated to what extent the zoning system may affect the estimation result of mode choice model and then developed the methodologies for complementing accuracy of observations on origin and destination locations.
    Secondly, we investigated the applicability of the various data sources toward the demand forecasting to improve its predictive accuracy. An integrated travel demand model which utilizes combined estimation across multiple data sources such as revealed preference, stated preference(SP), and aggregate data was developed. The model was empirically applied for the demand forecast of intercity high speed rail, and results showed that the utilization of SP and aggregate data might be very effective to reflect the user's intention toward new transportation services and to capture the nation-wide changes in travel demand. Next, we conducted in-depth analysis on SP data and proposed the modeling methodologies and the survey schemes to precisely capture the individual's preference and travel behavior changes. Furthermore, we investigated the availability of prove-vehicle data, which is collected from the on-board equipment such as GPS devices, and the results showed that it has huge potentials to understand the dynamic aspects of route choice behavior.
    Thirdly, we focused on the modeling methodologies to improve the demand forecasting for ITS and TDM policies. Based on the concept of "bounded rationality", we developed the travel behavior model in which the semi-ordered lexicographic decision rule was embedded. The proposed model was empirically applied for the actual and simulated data and showed high data reproducibility and predictive accuracy compared to the conventional random utility maximization model while its stability in model estimation was quite low. We, therefore, developed the estimation methodologies utilizing data mining method and the empirical results showed that it might be useful to specify the threshold parameters in the model resulting in the improvement of stability in model estimation.

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  • 交通意思決定に用いられる意思決定方略の個人間異質性及び状況依存性に関する研究

    2002 - 2003

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業 若手研究(B)  若手研究(B)

    倉内 慎也

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    Grant amount:\1900000 ( Direct Cost: \1900000 )

    交通行動モデルで支配的に用いられている線形効用関数は,操作性が高い反面,過度に合理的な意思決定方略を想定している.一方,実世界においては,人間の情報処理能力は有限であるため,非補償型や逐次選択型のような,より簡略な意思決定方略が支配的になることが数多く報告されている.ここで,個々の意思決定者によって採用される意思決定方略は,過去の経験,習慣などの意思決定者の特性や,意思決定時点における交通状態などの意思決定環境等に依存し,極めて多様であると同時に,容易に観測できるものではない.
    そこで本研究では,潜在クラスモデルの考え方を採用することにより,離散選択モデルの枠組みで様々な意思決定方略が考慮可能な方法論を提案した.メンバーシップ関数の説明変数として意思決定環境を表す変数や個人属性を用いることにより,上述のような,意思決定方略の状況依存性や個人間異質性,環境変化に伴う方略の推移が表現可能になるものと期待される.
    次に,シミュレーションにより生成した仮想の選択データを用いて,提案モデルの推定特性を分析した.その結果,選択結果のみから多数の意思決定方略を内包したモデルを推定した場合,モデルの自由度が幾何級数的に増加するため,パラメータの推定精度が著しく低下し,多くの場合,推定計算が収束しないことが判明した.一方,アンケート調査などで,採用した意思決定方略に関する情報を収集し,それを援用してモデルを推定した場合には,かなり良好な推定精度が得られ,収束可能性もかなり高くなることが確認された.

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  • Travel Behavior Models with Explicit Consideration of Information Search and Processing toward the Evaluation of Advanced Traveler Information

    2001 - 2002

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    MORIKAWA Takayuki, KAWAKAMI Shogo, KURAUCHI Shinya, YAMAMOTO Toshiyuki, INOKUCHI Hiroaki

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    Grant amount:\6200000 ( Direct Cost: \6200000 )

    The aim of this research is to propose the methodologies to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of advanced traveler information systems based on the concept of "bounded rationality" which relax some of the assumptions of "instrumental rationality" postulated in conventional models. Firstly, we developed the two discrete choice models which explicitly consider the mechanism of information searches and processing: one is about the information acquisition, and the other is about the information processing. Latent class models were utilized to represent the heterogeneity of the decision making processes among individuals. These models were empirically applied, and the results showed that the proposed model was superior in both reproducibility and predictive accuracy compared to the conventional models in which "instrumental rationality" is assumed. Also verified was that since the degree of freedom of proposed models are extremely high, it is essential to collect and utilize the various data sources, such as psychological data and SP data, together with the actual choice data to get the unbiased and effective parameter estimates.
    Secondly, we investigated the impacts of advanced traveler information system on transportation network demand. The multi-class user equilibrium model, in which the cognitive levels on travel time and network configuration differ between each class, was developed and empirically applied to the road network of Nagoya metropolitan area. The result showed that we obtained the best fit to the observed traffic flows when we set 20-30% of drivers, mainly private trip drivers, choose only arterial roads. This causes unnecessary congestion on arterial roads. By providing information of the full network to make the equilibrium state, about 70,900 JPY (600 USD) of travel time reduction benefits accrues to such drivers. But we cannot conclude that this concentration to arterial roads is attributed to imperfect information on network configuration or simply due to the preference bias to arterials.
    Thirdly, probe car data are analyzed both to directly observe route choice behavior using a large scale probe-car experiment conducted in Nagoya metropolitan area. We investigated a heavily traveled O-D pair for which a toll route and several free routes can be used. It was found that 30-70% travelers used the toll route, implying that VOT distributes. We observed that multiple free routes were used among which travel times differed 10-20%. Also observed was that the toll route was often slower but many drivers chose it. Thus, substantial number of drivers made seemingly irrational decision making. Those observations may partly be explained by imperfect information and other factors than travel time and cost. We also investigated the characteristics of probe car data and its potentials toward the transportation planning, and the results showed that probe-car data could be much richer both in quantity and quality compared to traditional questionnaire type travel surveys.

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  • 個人の限定合理性を考慮した一週間単位の交通行動及び活動意思決定のモデル分析

    2000 - 2001

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業 奨励研究(A)  奨励研究(A)

    倉内 慎也

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    Grant amount:\1800000 ( Direct Cost: \1800000 )

    前年度の成果を踏まえ,まず,生活行動シミュレータの改良を行なった.現況再現性を低下させる原因としては,生活行動を取り巻く様々な制約条件が十分に考慮されていないことが大きいと考え,stochastic frontier modelを援用し,観測不可能な睡眠・在宅制約時刻のモデル化を行なった.また,前年度構築した逐次的意思決定モデルで問題となった活動スケジューリング段階をモデル化し,シミュレーションシステムの最上位に統合した.その結果,現況再現性は大きく向上したものの,依然として実務に適用できるレベルにはないことが判明した.これは,モデルシステムに多くの改良の余地があるものの,効用理論に基づいて生活行動全般を再現することの限界を示唆しているものと考えられる.
    そこで,行動理論は採用せず,回帰モデルのように現象記述的に生活行動を再現するモデルの構築を行なった.具体的には,生存時間解析に用いられる競合危険モデルを用いて,鉄道利用者の1週間の生活行動を記述するモデルを構築した.その結果,1)1週間という膨大な生活行動も比較的容易にモデル化可能である,2)買い物などの日常的な活動については日変動を良好に再現し得る,3)一方,レジャーなどの非日常的活動については,1週間の行動の観測データのみでは不十分であり,より長期の調査を必要とする,等の知見が得られた.
    上記2つの生活行動モデルとは別に,個人の限定合理性を明示的に考慮した行動モデルの構築も併せて行なった.意思決定者は必ずしも全ての交通サービス属性を評価しているとは限らないとの認識から,潜在クラスアプローチによって個人ごとに異なる評価属性集合を考慮した離散選択モデルを構築した.その結果,1)計算時間は実用範囲内にある,2)既存モデルと比較して現況再現性が向上し,かつ予測においても実世界と直感的に整合的である,3)政策決定に際して有益かつ豊穣な情報を提供し得る,ことが明らかとなった.

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  • A Model Analysis of Travel Behavior Changes by Advanced Traveler Information Systems and Their Implications to Transportation Planning

    1999 - 2000

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    MORIKAWA Takayuki, KURAUCHI Shinya, KAWAKAMI Shogo

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    Grant amount:\5500000 ( Direct Cost: \5500000 )

    This research investigated the impact of travel information provision on micro level, that is, individual's travel behavior, and macro level, transportation network of metropolitan area. Firstly, we developed a methodology to quantitatively evaluate the impact of traveler's pre-trip information considering transaction cost for travel behavior changes. The transaction cost was defined as the difference of expected utilities which are observed before and after travel behavior changes, and was estimated using a discrete choice model which represents mode choice behavior with and without the information on travel time respectively. We, then, developed a discrete choice model that incorporates non-compensatory decision making rules and attribute cutoff to explicitly consider the individual's information-processing capability. The model was empirically applied to the travel mode choice behavior under on-route traveler's information, and the result showed that the proposed model was superior in both reproducibility and prediction to the existing model in which an utility maximizing decision maker is assumed.
    Next, we investigated the impact of advanced traveler information system on transportation network demand of Chukyo metropolitan area using equilibrium assignment model. Two different approaches were proposed to relax the assumption of driver's perfect information. From the viewpoint that the actual route demand is equilibrate not in travel time level but in utility level, we first developed a methodology to amend link performance function in order to incorporate many unobservable factors other than travel time and cost. This method was empirically applied and the goodness-of-fit, especially in off-peak period, was dramatically increased. We, then, developed an equilibrium assignment method considering heterogeneity of network perception. More specifically, drivers were divided into different categories according to his/her cognitive level on the network configuration and travel time, and were assigned using different principle. The proposed model was applied changing the composition ratio of each categories, and the result showed that the goodness-of fit was the highest in the situation where about 20% of drivers chose his/her route with imperfect information. Finally, we estimated the user benefit of the advanced traveler information system that provides the shortest path information to the drivers.

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  • Activity-based analysis of individual travel behavior

    1997

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    Grant type:Competitive

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  • 交通需要予測を目的とした個人の生活行動に関する研究

    1997

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    Grant type:Competitive

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  • Evaluation of urban transportation policies such as ITS and TDM

    1996

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    Grant type:Competitive

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  • ITSやTDMなどの都市交通政策に関する研究

    1996

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    Grant type:Competitive

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  • Analysis of travel behavior and decision making process

    1994

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    Grant type:Competitive

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  • 交通行動とその意思決定プロセスの分析

    1994

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    Grant type:Competitive

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